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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KREV 180917
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
217 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures remain above average with highs in the 60s for
Sierra communities and 70s for lower valleys through Friday. A
few valleys may see highs surpass 80 degrees this weekend into
Monday. Aside from isolated shower chances near the Sierra Friday
afternoon, dry weather will prevail through the weekend. A cooling
trend with increased shower chances may return next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Key points:

* Warmer than average temperatures through early next week, with
  overall warmest days Sunday-Monday.

* Isolated shower chances Friday afternoon, mainly ear the Sierra
  crest south of US-50.

* Next week looks more favorable for shower/thunder chances each
  afternoon/early evening, most likely starting on Tuesday.

The warm spring weather enjoyed by the majority of the region
continues into early next week. Areas near the OR border and
northern Pershing County had to wait a couple days longer, but
will finally get their warm-up starting today as a flat ridge of
high pressure builds into CA/NV. Highs will climb into the lower
70s today for western NV valleys and 60s for Sierra communities
and areas well north of I-80. The warming trend will continue this
weekend into Monday with many western NV valleys having a solid
(55-80+%) chance of surpassing 80 degrees for the first time this
year on at least one of those three days. The melting of the
Sierra snowpack will accelerate and produce faster cold flows on
area rivers and streams. Use caution and wear gear that provides
protection from hypothermia if planning recreation in these
waterways.

On Friday, a weak upper trough moving across central CA will
produce more afternoon cumulus buildups across the region. Some of
the latest high resolution guidance has followed up from the
scenarios presented by the GFS/NAM earlier this week, with
isolated shower potential favoring areas near the Sierra crest
south of US-50 into western Mono County. Instability may be just
sufficient enough to produce a few lightning strikes as blended
guidance carries a 10-15% probability of thunder in these same
areas near the Sierra.

From next Tuesday through the end of next week, medium range
ensemble guidance brings hints of a more active pattern returning
to CA/NV, in the form of split troughs or closed upper lows
reaching the west coast. The varied scenarios could rotate
additional areas of low pressure near the coast and/or move these
systems inland. While these details remain several days away from
being resolved, the overall trend would favor potential for mainly
afternoon-evening showers each day next week, with isolated
coverage so not all areas will get wet. More aggressive scenarios
would increase coverage to scattered and include thunderstorm
chances as well. Temperatures would also come down from the early
week warmth, with the blended guidance showing highs dipping back
to near seasonal averages by mid-late week. MJD
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&&

.AVIATION...

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VFR conditions will prevail for the next several days, except as
noted below:

* KTRK can expect patchy FZFG until about 16Z this morning.
  Increased mid-high cloud cover will reduce the fog potential at
  KTRK for early Friday morning.

* Friday afternoon cumulus buildups will be visible from the main
  terminals, with about a 20-25% chance for a rain shower (10%
  chance for thunder) producing brief MVFR CIGS at KMMH between
  21Z-03Z.

* Winds will be generally light for the next few days, except
  Saturday afternoon looks to resemble a zephyr day with west wind
  gusts around 20 mph for the far western NV terminals.

MJD
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$