Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 200856
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
156 AM PDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Much warmer temperatures will quickly return for the upcoming
weekend through early next week with dry conditions prevailing.
A passing wave on Sunday will bring isolated chances
thunderstorms mainly towards the Oregon border. Then, low
pressure off the California coast will bring low chances of
precipitation the middle and end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Aside
from very pleasant weather conditions through this weekend, the
only other conditions of interest will occur Sunday as a weak wave
passes the region along the Oregon border.

High pressure builds back over CA/NV today with warming
temperatures and lighter winds. Temperatures will rebound on
today into the 60s and warm up even more on Saturday with
mid/upper 70s across western Nevada and northeast CA with 60s in
the Sierra valleys. Temperatures this weekend will be nearly 15
degrees above normal for this time of year. A fast moving
shortwave moves across the region on Sunday bringing increased
clouds and winds for Sunday afternoon. There is a slight chance we
could see a few isolated showers and even a thunderstorm north of
Susanville on Sunday afternoon and carrying into far northern
Nevada by Sunday evening. -Hoon/Boyd

.LONG TERM...Monday onward...

Warm and dry conditions start the week with high temperatures
continuing to be 10-15 degrees above normal. Models continue to show
shower and isolated thunderstorm development over portions of the
Sierra Tuesday into Wednesday. It may only end up being cumulus
development Tuesday due to lack of appreciable moisture, but as an
upper level low approaches the coast Wednesday, the increased
moisture and upper level divergence could help to trigger storms.

There is still a significant amount of forecast model spread in the
position of this closed low and forecaster confidence remains low on
the exact location and therefore impacts. The latitudinal grouping
of ensemble members is improving, focusing the center of the low
around 35N. The longitudinal component, however ranges from around
130W in the eastern Pacific to around 120W over California. The
other question is the speed at which this feature will translate
across the west once it finally does make landfall. The operational
GFS is more progressive than the EC, but both still show large
ensemble spread.

Now what does this mean for the forecast...
The low is likely to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
along with increased breezes and a bit of a cooldown. If it moves
through quickly, the weekend will be clear, but if it lingers, we
could see continued shower/thunderstorm chances. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions today and through much of the weekend
outside of a 40% chance for early morning fog around KTRK.
Northerly breezes today will transition to the east going into
Saturday and become light. By Sunday, warm afternoon temperatures
will bring typical westerly afternoon breezes with gusts around 20
kts. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of a Portola, CA-Lovelock, NV line Sunday afternoon.
Any storms that form will be isolated, but could bring brief
ceiling and visibility restrictions along with terrain
obscuration. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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