Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 160231
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
731 PM PDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...

Snow has been accumulating for over an hour now at Bogard
Junction, NW of Susanville, CA, at 5630 feet. However, over
Donner Pass, snow levels have not fallen as quickly as expected.
Currently snow is accumulating on the shoulders over Donner Pass
(I-80) but appears to be just starting to stick to the highway at
the summit. Radar imagery shows the cold front approaching the
the Sierra crest, and snow levels should begin falling over the
rest of this evening. As snow levels fall tonight, travel
conditions will continue to worsen over the Sierra, and the
potential is also still there for a hazardous morning commute in
western Nevada valleys, especially in the valleys north of I-80.
Thus, the forecast is on track for tonight and no updates are
planned at this time.

Winds will continue to drop off this evening for most communities,
however, there could be a burst of stronger winds with the cold
frontal passage, especially near and south of Highway 50. Wind
prone areas along the Sierra Front will also remain gusty through
late this evening. JCM

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 303 PM PDT Sun Apr 15 2018/

SYNOPSIS...

A fast moving storm will continue to bring strong winds through
this evening, with rain and snow this evening through Monday.
Slick road conditions are likely tonight and Monday morning
especially near the Sierra. A weaker storm could bring light rain
and snow showers Wednesday through Thursday. Below average
temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday with warmer
conditions returning by next weekend.

SHORT TERM...

A fast-moving, cold storm will continue to push through the
region tonight through Monday. Strong winds have developed around
the region with gusts 40-55 mph. These winds will continue through
the evening with stronger winds likely along wind prone areas
of US-395. Areas of blowing dust have already developed east of
US-95 in Pershing/Churchill/Mineral Counties. This may bring rapid
reductions to visibility along I-80 between Lovelock and
Winnemucca and on US-50 between Middlegate and Austin.

Rain/snow is already starting to move into northern CA this
afternoon and will push through the northern Sierra and Tahoe
Basin by this evening and overnight. A short burst of rain/snow
will spillover into the Reno-Carson City area this evening then
becoming convective snow showers after midnight and into Monday
morning. Storm total snowfall still looks to be on track with 3-6
inches around the 6000ft elevation in the Sierra, including around
the Tahoe Basin. For the High Sierra above 7000 feet, expect to
see higher amounts up to 6-12 inches, especially along the Sierra
crest.

For anyone traveling in the Sierra today, its advised that you
complete your travel by 5pm this afternoon. Conditions will
deteriorate sharply this evening in the Sierra with periods of
whiteout conditions over the Sierra passes between 5pm and 11pm
this evening. For everyone "down here" in western Nevada, we
should prepare for potential for light snow accumulations
generally less than one inch by tonight. It could make for a slick
and slow morning commute.

Brisk and cold conditions are expected for Monday, along with snow
showers and snow pellet showers during the afternoon hours. We
could see a stray clap of thunder as well due to the unstable
conditions. We shouldn`t see any major snow accumulations on
Monday, although some of the heavier showers could produce rapid
reductions to visibility and slick roads (especially in the
Sierra). Cold temperatures are expected Monday night as we clear
out and see temperatures drop below freezing, including in the
valleys of western Nevada. -Hoon

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Changes were fairly minimal concerning the mid-week system. Models
remain more consolidated on timing, but have begun to drop the low
on a more southerly track. This track would favor less precipitation
in the Sierra and very little for western Nevada. If models continue
to favor this track in subsequent runs, some adjustments to the
forecast will be needed to scale back precipitation amounts.

Otherwise, the wave`s characteristics are similar to previous runs.
Timing for the wave continues to be late Wednesday and Wednesday
night with a fast easterly progression. Winds are expected to be
breezy, but not overly strong. In terms of impacts, this is a fairly
minor wave, but some slick conditions will be possible mainly for
Sierra locations. Only a few inches are possible due to system speed
and trajectory. Snow levels are low for April, but not overly
concerning considering very limited moisture in western Nevada.

Temperatures will remain below average through Thursday night.
Morning lows will generally be around freezing and a concern for
those that have already planted gardens. By Friday, expect ridging
to build over the region allowing for warmer temperatures around
seasonal averages. The warming trend continues into the weekend with
western Nevada highs warming to around 70 degrees and around 60
degrees for Sierra valleys. Boyd

AVIATION...

Gusty winds are expected to continue into the evening hours with
degraded flying conditions through tonight, and the potential for
flight delays, cancellations or diversions. Gusts have generally
been in the 40-45kt range along the Sierra Front with a few rogue
gusts to 48 kts. Gusts slow a little overnight, but really lose
steam by late Monday morning.

Accumulating snow and IFR conditions are expected at the Sierra
terminals tonight, especially prior to midnight for KTRK-KTVL and
after midnight for KMMH. A shorter period of snow could produce
brief IFR conditions late this evening for KRNO-KCXP. The chances
for snow accumulation on paved areas look minimal for western
Nevada terminals, with a slightly higher chance for KRTS-KMEV than
at other terminals. Some RASN will be possible for Sierra Front
terminals transitioning to light snow showers shortly before
precipitation shuts off around 12Z tonight.

For Monday, unsettled conditions continue with -SHSN especially in
the afternoon and early evening, producing quick periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions especially for the Sierra terminals. Although
winds won`t be as strong as today, brisk west to northwest winds
along with the showers (and a slight chance for PM thunder) will
keep turbulent conditions for flights into and out of the region.
MJD/Boyd

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ003>005.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday NVZ001.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ002.

CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ070-071.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday CAZ073.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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