Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 142037
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
137 PM PDT Mon May 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over the region this week with showers
and a few thunderstorms each day. Showers and thunderstorms may
produce heavy downpours with accumulating snow or small hail
possible in the higher elevations on Tuesday and Wednesday. This
weekend may feature a break in the action with warmer weather
before additional showers develop for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Large scale pattern remains unchanged with an omega block over the
west. Cut off low over northeast Nevada will continue to provide
the instability for showers and an afternoon thunderstorm or two
this evening. We did receive one report of a funnel cloud over
Virginia City about 120 pm, additional funnel clouds are possible
but won`t be a threat to anyone.

Starting tomorrow a second low will begin to influence the
forcing and instability over the Sierra, northeast California and
the western Nevada Sierra Front. Surface heating may also boost
the instability with a few strong thunderstorms possible. Rain may
also be heavy at times and there is the threat for accumulating
snow on Sierra passes above 8500 feet. Strong spring thunderstorms
can also lead to accumulating small hail, which can be worse than
snow for travelers.

The second low is forecast to move into Mono/Inyo counties on
Wednesday. The latest round of model simulations show quite a bit
of cloud cover with high temperatures limited to the 50s in the
Sierra and and 60s for the valleys. This would limit surface based
instability and cut down on the treat for strong outflow winds.
Models are also hinting at rainbands developing over individual
showers and thunderstorms, which could lead to a longer duration
rain event with lesser amounts of thunderstorm activity. Hail and
snow could once again be an issue in the Sierra, especially for
Carson, Sonora and Ebbetts passes where a few inches of snow could
accumulate.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue Thursday and Friday
though we`ll be on the back side of the low and thus less lifting
mechanisms to work with.

The weekend may have a dry day with simulating showing another
slow moving low approaching the the California coast early next
week. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers will increase this afternoon with a few thunderstorms
possible. Best chance is along and east of KWMC-KRNO-KMMH, though
a few showers may impact TVL and TRK early this evening. Strong
storms may produce outflow winds to 30 kts.

With the moist conditions areas of fog may redevelop in some
valleys early Tuesday morning. KTRK, KTVL and the northern Sierra
valleys are at highest risk here, though a few western NV valleys
may have some shallow fog.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should increase for Tuesday and
Wednesday as low pressure moves over the Sierra. There is a threat
for accumulating snow or hail at the Sierra terminals, but
predictability is low at this point. Periods of heavy rain are
possible with the stronger storms as well. Winds should remain
light, but turbulence is possible near stronger showers and
thunderstorms. Brong

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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