Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
907 FXUS65 KREV 300907 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 207 AM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Generally mild temperatures and increased breezes continue today, except cooler near the Oregon border. A dry cold front arrives on Wednesday, bringing cooler weather across the region. Otherwise, much of this week will be generally dry and seasonably warm as temperatures rebound on Thursday. Shower chances and gusty winds increase this weekend with the arrival of the next storm system. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies, light winds and dry conditions will lead to cooler temperatures this morning across the area, especially in the valleys of western Nevada. However, temperatures warm up this afternoon with sunny skies and breezy winds helping mix the atmosphere. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonal across most of the region, except for the far northern portions of Washoe Co. near the Oregon border and the Surprise Valley where temps will be below average. This area is closer to the storm track over the Pac NW resulting in cooler weather. Breezy winds return this afternoon from the west with speeds between 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Stronger winds are expected at ridge level and in the eastern slopes of area mountains. Lake waters may be a bit choppy in the late afternoon and evening at the time of peak winds. A dry cold front will be pushing south late this evening and overnight. This brings northerly breezy winds tonight and cooler weather Wednesday for the whole region, especially for the northern (N. Washoe/Surprise Valley) and eastern (Pershing/Churchill Co.) areas. Winds decrease overnight behind the front becoming lighter during the morning hours. A temperature rebound is expected on Thursday and Friday as fair weather dominates the pattern. However, breezy conditions appear to return again on Thursday with the approach of a shortwave trough over OR. Conditions will be pretty much dry through Friday, except for a slight chance of showers (10-20%) in the Surprise Valley and northern Washoe near the OR border on Thursday afternoon/evening. This weekend brings plenty of uncertainty in the forecast among the deterministic and ensemble members of the GEFS/ECMWF/CMC. There is plenty of spread in the ensemble plumes and meteograms to hint at a pattern in specific, but the trend indicates a cooler, wetter and breezier weekend. Although, no significant hazards/impacts are observed at the moment. Probabilities for QPF amounts greater than 0.25 inches on Saturday are 5-20% for the Sierra and W. NV, and 20-40% for the Surprise Valley and western Lassen Co. By Sunday, probs are similar for W. NV, but increase for the Sierra/Lassen/Surprise Valley and N Washoe near the OR border to 30-60% per the NBM. Snowfall remains mostly limited to the Sierra and NE CA, with probability for snow amounts greater than 3 inches for the weekend are 20-40% for the Sierra peaks, and 5-20% for the communities in the area. -Crespo && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through the period. Winds remain the main hazard. Therefore, periods of light turbulence and localized wind shear are likely in the vicinity of mountains. Winds will be terrain-driven in the mornings, becoming from the west in the afternoon with speeds 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Slightly stronger winds possible over mountain ridges and in the eastern slopes of mountains. A cold front tonight veers the winds to the north with similar speeds. Winds slowly subside behind the front after midnight. -Crespo && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$