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000
FXUS65 KRIW 250912
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will overspread the
  state today. Best chances for accumulation remain across
  western WY.

- Second system moves across the state later Friday and
  continues through the weekend. Ample rainfall accumulations
  for lower elevations and some snow accumulations at highest
  mountain peaks.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The midlevel trough continues to push inland across the Four
Corners Region, and will sweep across Colorado this evening.
This will draw a cold front southeastward across the state
today, bringing some sfc focus to the increased moisture across
the state. Widespread showers will continue across the state,
with some embedded thunder at times this afternoon. Best rain
accumulations will be across the western portions this
afternoon.

Friday the trough will be deepening across the Northern Plains,
keeping the ample moisture wrapped around the backside across
WY. The next trough will be dropping in from the NW across the
northern Rockies, bringing another batch of instability. Models
continue bring better precipitation amounts across the state due
to multiple lifting mechanisms, but with some deviation in
models on overall precip amounts and trouble with the previous
several storms, have kept some of the highest QPF amounts in
check for the state. Still expecting at least a half inch of
rain for all locations except the Bighorn Basin and Johnson
County, with areas of central WY likely seeing around 1 inch by
late Sunday. Snowfall amounts remain adequate for the higher
elevations, with highest accumulation remaining limited to the
highest elevations of the Winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 949 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Isolated rain showers will linger tonight into Thursday morning, but
by Thursday afternoon convection will develop/become widespread. The
chance of any terminal having a thunderstorm move directly over it
is too low for prevailing TS at this time, but the chance is high
enough for VCTS at KJAC from 19Z-00Z Thursday afternoon. Have
prevailing VFR at all terminals through the TAF period, but brief
reductions to MVFR are possible (20-30%) if a thunderstorm directly
impacts a terminal. Most terminals have prevailing VCSH Thursday
afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms pass through the
area. Gusty erratic wind will occur with thunderstorms and
thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Wind gusts at high as 40 mph will
be possible with thunderstorms.

Tonight an area of -RA is likely (60-70%) to be near KLND/KRIW from
06Z-10Z, so have VCSH to account for this, but some -RA is certainly
possible (30%). Mountain obscuration will occur at times as BKN040-
BKN100 CIGS continue across the area over the next 24 hours.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Rowe