Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260235 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1035 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push east of the area overnight. A southern system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold fronts Friday night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1035 PM Wednesday... Clearing over the middle Ohio Valley will be partially reversed, as some stratocu reforms, and high clouds increase from the southwest, ahead of the next low pressure system. The forecast is otherwise on track. As of 810 PM Wednesday... Northeast to southwest oriented cold front bisected the area, with scattered showers along and east of the front, this evening. The forecast remains on track, as these features continue to move east tonight. As of 130 PM Wednesday... Overall, no significant changes were necessary to the near term forecast period. Upper low continues to hang out near the eastern North Carolina/Virginia coast, with bulk of precipitation associated with that off to our east. An upper trough in northern stream, and surface cold front, which appears to have entered southeast Ohio zones, will continue to provide some light shower activity at times through the remainder of the evening, particularly across the higher terrain, aided by northwesterly flow. This front will gradually sag south across the area later tonight, before becoming somewhat stationary across the south on Thursday. Lots of uncertainty in the forecast overnight, and how much clearing will take place. Based on this, could see either a night with lots of low hanging cloud, or fog development. Went ahead and added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight, and thinking areas most likely to clear/see fog will be across western/northern zones. Much of Thursday looks to be dry, although chances for precipitation will return across the south towards the end of the period as another low moves east across the southeastern U.S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Models have come together with the system moving up from the southeast and exiting late Thursday night and Friday. GFS is more aggressive with this system as it exits than the NAM but similar in timing and tracks. A brief break on Friday and then models differ on the next system which tracks north of the area, with a weak front moving through for Saturday. Moisture may be lacking with this system and precip may be limited to the northern zones Saturday. So mainly went with slight chance pops with chance pops in mainly across the northern mountain zones. Temperatures warm to the 70s over much of the area on Friday out ahead of this next frontal system and just a tad cooler with more clouds and possible precip on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A high pressure system will build over the area Saturday night, and remain through Wednesday. Temperatures will gradual warm through the period. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 810 PM Wednesday... Low level moisture, in the wake of low pressure, and a cold front, exiting to the east, will keep MVFR stratocu around through the overnight into Thursday morning. In addition, it will not take much in the way of breaks in the overcast to allow dense fog to form overnight. In and near the mountains, IFR stratus will also be around overnight into Thursday morning. The fog will dissipate around 14Z Thursday, and the stratus and stratocu will mix out into a flat cu deck near 4 kft by Thursday afternoon. The next low pressure system will approach from the southwest late Thursday. Light north to northwest flow surface and aloft overnight, will become light and variable surface and aloft on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form overnight -- or could develop as low stratus instead. With very light flow Thursday morning, the fog may not dissipate as quickly or abruptly as coded. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/26/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M L L M L M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L M L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible overnight Thursday night into Friday morning in rain in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/SL SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM

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