Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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256 FXUS61 KRLX 221858 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 258 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving storm system approaches on Monday with rain lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 243 PM Sunday... Vertically stacked system will roll slowly eastward from the Ozarks today making it only into western Tennessee by Monday evening. This slow movement will keep our area largely dry through tonight. We will have to deal with high clouds, which became thick enough to limit sunshine and temps over the Kanawha Valley this afternoon. Based on recent satellite imagery, however, this appears to be thinning in enough time to allow for a late surge in temps. The high clouds will persist in some form or fashion overnight, but temps will still likely take advantage of the dry low level airmass and fall, possibly as low as the upper 40s in our normally colder valleys. A band of rain will start to work northeastward into the coalfields by around dawn on Monday. This will be heading into a dry low level airmass with downsloping southeast low level flow in place. So, the rain will likely break up some but I still paint likely PoPs for many locations but with light QPF as this band works deeper into the region during the day. The thicker clouds and precip should keep temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most locations. The other factor on Monday will be increasing winds with gusts to 20 mph possible in the valleys but 30 to 40 mph over the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Sunday... No significant changes to the short term with the forecast closed low filling as it moves into the middle Ohio Valley from the west southwest. After the low fills, another trough aloft in the northern stream will drop in immediately after the first feature exits. Although unsettled through the short term, rain will likely be light, and off and on in nature before it ends Wednesday night. Overall, expecting 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain during the short term period.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Sunday... Have some discrepancies in the long term solutions for the weekend. Consensus exists on weak and short lived high pressure going into the weekend, and then the next upper level system, however the extent to which that upper low digs in is in question. One model depicts more of a separation of the open wave into a northern and southern component and an overall weaker system, while other close it off while digging towards the 540 mark over the central/southern Appalachians. As it stands, cannot discount ridgetop flurries early Friday night. Getting tougher to get to the -8C 850mb temps as we get later into Spring.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 112 PM Sunday... While VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period, an approaching storm system to our west will cause increasing winds aloft. This will cause a marginal low-level wind shear risk at CRW and EKN overnight tonight. Surface winds at BKW get strong enough overnight to preclude a LLWS mention in that TAF. Otherwise, surface winds will increase after dawn on Monday elsewhere and become gusty. High clouds in place now will gradually lower as moisture increases Monday morning and a band of rain will advance northeastward toward HTS and BKW by the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible late Monday afternoon and Monday night under moderate rainfall. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/26 NEAR TERM...ABE SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ABE

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