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780
FXUS61 KRLX 021744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
144 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend tonight
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes
out over the area this weekend. Active next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 142 PM Thursday...

High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the
area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves
north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under
a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday`s afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS
increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These
ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.

Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild
temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm
surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with
few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands,
ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly
flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with
temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the
lower 70s higher elevations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...

Sustained periods of dry periods are elusive in both the short
and long term periods.

The short term does start dry, with mid-upper level ridging
exiting ahead of a southern stream short wave trough and surface
cold front approaching from the west. There are some model
differences in whether these features roll into the area Friday
midday through evening, or Friday afternoon and night. The
latter would allow more dry time and daytime heating Friday,
while the former brings clouds, showers and thunderstorms in
earlier. The forecast sticks with the later timing.

Even so, some increase in cloud during the morning and midday,
and modest dew points of around 60 or even lower, will likely
contribute to modest instability Friday afternoon, with CAPE
less than a KJ/kg. Given modest low to mid level flow/shear,
thunderstorms are not expected to be especially strong, but they
can produce heavy downpours and gusty winds in the middle Ohio
Valley by late in the day.

As the system lifts northeastward through the area, the surface
cold front washes out, stranding the area in southerly flow of
very warm and increasingly humid air amid additional short wave
ripples in the mid-upper level southwest flow. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely Friday night through Saturday, and even
into Sunday. The nearly saturated atmosphere will not be that
unstable, but PW values could climb to 1.5 inches or higher, so
heavy downpours are a good possibility. However, the growing
vegetation and recent dry weather should minimize the potential
for high water.

By later in the day Sunday, the short wave trough exits, giving
way to ridging, lessening shower and thunderstorm coverage
Sunday afternoon, compared with Saturday afternoon, at least
across the middle Ohio Valley.

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as mid-upper level
ridging slowly works east of the area. While central guidance
highs Friday are 10 to nearly 15 degrees above normal for early
May, they are still comfortably below record highs for the date.
After a rain-cooled Saturday, perhaps not too unlike Tuesday,
highs moderate a bit on Sunday given decreasing shower and
thunderstorm coverage. Nights remain unseasonably mild for this
time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1154 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues for the extended period as another
shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a
low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually
move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal
to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and
additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the
region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are
expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized
storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability
increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the
weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the
potential for flooding issues increasing during this period,
particularly Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 141 PM Thursday...

Widespread VFR conditions under near calm flow are expected
through at least 12Z Friday. High clouds will gradually increase
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This front,
together with mid level shortwaves, will promote scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms, with more confidence during
the afternoon and evening hours. Ceilings may become MVFR across
the Middle OH valley towards 00Z Saturday to affect PKB and HTS
first, before spreading east across the entire area overnight
Friday night into 12-13Z Saturday.


Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of
the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday,
and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ