-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
588
FXUS61 KRLX 080615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the
frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding.
Severe storms are possible today and again Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Tuesday...

Cleaned up POPs some to better reflect current situation and
latest hi-res guidance, but no other major changes made at this
time.


As of 1208 PM Tuesday...

Showers and storms, some strong to severe are expected in the near
term period. A large low pressure system will continue to meander
across the northern plains, sagging south tonight into Wednesday,
filling as it does so. Convection across the midwest last night into
this morning, should weaken as it continues eastward, but could
reinvigorate later this afternoon/evening as it travels eastward
towards our area into an increasingly unstable atmosphere, along
with additional rounds of storms expected overnight from additional
shortwaves crossing the area. Strong cape on the order of around
2000 J/Kg, and increasing shear of 50+ kts, along with curved
hodographs and low lcl heights, lead to threats for all hazards,
including large hail, and strong damaging winds/downbursts, and
perhaps an isolated tornado, although the greater risk for that
looks to lie to our west.  Period of greatest threat appears to be
by 20Z through 03Z.

There may be a bit of a lull in the activity for the first part of
Wednesday, but another potent wave will move through the area later
Wednesday evening into the short term period, with heavy rains and
severe weather potential, although this period damaging winds and
hail look to be the primary risks, with a lesser risk for
tornadoes, although it cannot be completely ruled out either.

In addition, increasing southwesterly flow across the area should
allow for PW values to rise into 1.4 to 1.5 inches today, and
approach 1.7 inches on Wednesday, and this with areas of saturated
soils from recent days, elected to issue a flood watch for flash
flooding across parts of the region. That will include the potential
for any convection today, plus additional rounds on Wednesday, and
continues into Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Wednesday...

This period starts off with a surface low along the western
flank of our CWA border. This feature will have already lifted
a warm frontal boundary north of our area while we remain in the
warm sector with ongoing shower and storm activity. By this
time frame, during the late morning to early afternoon,
instability will be lacking and there will even be a small cap
along with some low to modest shear. Severe potential will be
slim, however with high DCAPE values, long skinny CAPE and super
saturated low to even upper levels, flooding with be the main
threat, not to mention just over 1.5 inches of PWAT values.

The flood watch will be already inched into this period and
will likely be extended further into this period for the rest of
Thursday which is a good idea due to the aforementioned weather
parameters in place. An excessive rainfall threat will
accompany Thursday as well covering almost our entire CWA with
a marginal threat insinuating any thunderstorm will be capable
of producing heavy showers which may promote some localized and
isolated flash flooding issues, hence the main threat.

Not too far behind is the forecast cold front which is slated to
move through by 0Z which will then filter in drier air tapering
off activity for the late afternoon and evening. There will be
chances for showers on the table still due to wrap around flow
from the surface low although no thunderstorm activity should
take place. This will go on through Friday as an upper level
trough rides in right behind the surface low and keeps unsettled
weather on the table for us.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will then move in for early morning to early
afternoon on Saturday. This will be a short break due to another
surface low coming inbound from the northwest which will affect
the rest of the day on Saturday. More thunderstorm chances will
remain for the rest of the day going into Sunday morning. The
rest of the period looks to be slightly active, however models
are in disagreement on just how active. The GFS seems to be the
most active therefore went with a favored heavier weighted
blend with that model and left shower chances for the rest of
the period with diurnal thunderstorm activity on tap as well.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 133 AM Wednesday...

A line of showers and thunderstorms has arrived into the Ohio
River Valley at the time of writing, and is anticipated to glide
southward through the forecast area during the early morning
hours. Accompanying LLJ will impose a period of LLWS across most
TAF sites to begin the period, then trailing down in the wake of
convection. Outside of a brief uptick in winds and a quick
downpour, showers and storms passing over an airfield early this
morning may cause a quick reduction in surface vsbys.

Ceilings behind the line of storms drop down to MVFR during the
predawn hours, then should recover to low end VFR after sunrise.
Should generally see a quiet morning/early afternoon today
before convection picks back up in the late afternoon and
evening. Storms once again could promote strong wind gusts,
hail, and a quick spin-up tornado and is progged to prevail into
the overnight hours late Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
Similar trend in ceilings for late in the current TAF period,
where MVFR and pockets of IFR spread into the area before mixing
out once more Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection may vary from
forecast. Timing/development of MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning
may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 05/08/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday, and in fog and stratus Friday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WVZ005>009-013>017-
     024>026.
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ075-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/MEK
NEAR TERM...FK/SL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK