Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181039 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 639 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather pattern continues through Saturday with daily shower/thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass. After a brief lull on Sunday, chances increase Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 637 AM Friday... Forecast on track thus far this morning. No changes needed at this time. As of 145 AM Friday... Upper level low will continue to slowly approach the area thru tonight. The associated southerly flow will continue to advect moisture into the region, with pwats running 1.5 to 1.75 inches. It remains difficult to pinpoint areas for downpours, though the western lowlands and especially northeast Kentucky and southern Ohio are favorited today. This is where instability is highest, though not overly impressive. With flow remaining somewhat light, downpours could lead to localized flooding. FFG though remains high, as this area has by and large escaped activity over the past few days. The mountains into the northern lowlands continue to be targeted today and especially tonight for rounds of general showers, though with instability lacking, QPF should be held in check. The flood watch will continue as for now it will not take much to cause high water.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Friday... An upper level trough will push through on Saturday, continuing the chances of showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out some thunderstorms becoming severe. As this system pulls out of the area, some low level dry air will attempt to inhibit precipitation, providing a lull in the action. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 AM Friday... Moisture returns to the area on Monday, remaining through at least Tuesday. Models then diverge a bit for mid week with the timing of a cold front pushing through the region. Therefore, confidence for mid week drops, although all models push the front through by Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 638 AM Friday... Upper level low slowly approaches the area with rounds of showers and storms today. KHTS/KCRW are targeted for scattered convection this afternoon, where best instability will reside. VCTS were inserted at this distance. Elsewhere general showers could lead to brief reductions in vsby though VFR conditions should be prevalent. The exception being KBKW, where continued southeast flow is expected to bring cigs down into MVFR and potentially IFR this morning, gradually lifting today. Confidence is low on this scenario at the time with a mixed signal seen in the various models. Convection across western terminals will wane after sunset, while general showers continue across northern terminals...ie KCKB/EKN where vsby and/or cigs may drop into MVFR tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BKW may be too pessimistic with cigs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend and again for the beginning of the work week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ028-030>034-039-040- 515>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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