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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 220526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry through Tuesday. Rain returns Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front. Dry and warming through the remainder of the work week.
Next chance of rain for the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 120 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure slowly shifts east across the region today,
exiting east overnight tonight with little in the way of sensible
weather concerns. Clear skies, relatively light winds, and dry low
levels have allowed temperatures to plummet this morning with
several cold spots across the Middle Ohio Valley already near
freezing. Will certainly have some patchy freeze in addition to a
widespread frost this morning, but the horse is already out of the
barn so little benefit from selectively upgrading to freeze warnings.

A dry airmass in place coupled with late April Sun angles will yield
a healthy warm up off of chilly morning lows with afternoon highs
across the lower elevations in the lowe to mid 60s. With dew point
values in the mid 20s this afternoon this will make for some rather
dry relative humidity values in the lower to mid 20s. Winds will be
light through the period, so little in the way of fire weather
concerns, especially with the green up now well under way for all of
the lower elevations.

Could have at least some patchy additional frost tonight - most
likely in the Southern Coalfields, although there will be a couple
things working against it: 1.) Increasing mid-level cloudiness ahead
of the next system approaching Tuesday night 2.) Increasing
southwesterly flow toward dawn should promote mixing where cold air
has not become entrenched in cold air drainage early in the night.

Will pass the decision for additional frost/freeze highlights to the
day shift - to be determined once this morning`s highlights
fall off.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Key Points:
* Patchy frost possible early Tuesday morning.
* Cold front brings rain late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Monday night will be cool and quiet, with low temperatures likely to
fall into the 30s to low 40s. Some areas of patchy frost could
develop late Monday night into early Tuesday morning and impact
sensitive vegetation that is unprotected.

Dry conditions are expected to linger much of Tuesday, though cloud
cover gradually increases as high pressure recedes and a cold front
approaches from the west. Warm air advection preceding the front
should allow daytime temperatures to rise into the mid 60s to
low 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s in the
mountains. Amid warm and breezy conditions, relative humidity is
likely to descend into the 20-30% range during the afternoon.

Precipitation spreads into the area late Tuesday and then continues
as the cold front crosses the CWA overnight. Shower activity
should diminish from west to east following the departure of
the front Wednesday morning, with drier conditions returning
during the latter half of the day. The arrival of colder air in
the wake of the front should keep temperatures cooler than
normal on Wednesday, with highs projected to be in the upper 50s
to 60s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low 60s in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Key Points:
* High pressure brings quiet weather through Thursday night.
* Unsettled conditions return as a system approaches late week into
  the weekend.

High pressure builds into the area from the north Wednesday night,
then maintains control over the region through Thursday night.

A low pressure system lifts out of the Central Plains late this
week and then migrates across the Great Lakes during the
weekend. Chances for rain showers and thunderstorms will
gradually increase as high pressure erodes and the system lifts
a warm front across the CWA late Friday into Saturday. Unsettled
weather then remains possible through the weekend while
moisture and warm air continue feeding into the area.

Temperatures are expected to start out on the cooler side, with a
frosty morning possible Thursday. A warming trend takes hold late
week through the weekend, with highs potentially breaking into the
80s in the lowlands by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Monday...

Aside from lingering stratocumulus 040-060 near the mountains,
mainly clear skies are expected through this TAF period. Light
northwesterly flow this morning should keep any fog at bay, but
couldn`t rule out a brief period at EKN before daybreak.

Winds generally light and northwesterly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog possible at EKN this morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        MON 04/22/24
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions in rain showers and stratus are possible early
Wednesday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JP