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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 180617
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
217 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the area today. Another cold
front moves through tonight into Thursday, with upslope snow
Thursday night into early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Currently have surface high pressure across the forcast area,
however a mid level warm front is lifting in from the south.
This is already bringing some clouds across the coal fields.
Expect these clouds to gradually lift northward across the
forecast area into today. Some uncertainty whether we could get
an isolated shower with this. Did include some isolated rain or
snow showers across the central and northern mountains. These
clouds should keep southern areas of the forecast area from
freezing, with temperatures holding steady or even slightly
increasing through dawn. Across the north, already have some
below freezing temperatures. No changes to the ongoing freeze
warning planned.

A surface low will move through the lower Ohio River Valley
today, and cross southern OH into PA tonight. This will drive a
cold front through late this evening and early tonight. Expect a
line of showers moving through with or just behind the front.
Then, as an opening upper level low moves through tonight,
expect lingering showers. Enough colder air filtering in by
early Thursday morning that have some snow showers mixing in
across the highest elevations of the northern mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Light rain and snow showers to start the period on Thursday, as
an upper shortwave trough moves through the region,
transitioning to light upslope rain and snow showers later in
the day Thursday into Friday in northwesterly flow. Temperatures
on Thursday may take an initial fall, before steadying out
somewhat as the day progresses. Little to no accumulation is
expected from snow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

High pressure, with dry, and gradually warming conditions over
the weekend as upper ridging across the central U.S. builds and
shifts eastward with time. Conditions will be quite dry over the
weekend, with RH`s dipping into the 20 to 30 percent range, but
winds overall will be quite light, thereby mitigating a
significant fire threat. Precipitation chances return early next
week as a low in southern stream moves east across the southern
U.S., with best chances for precipitation across far southern
and eastern zones. Another front for the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

A mid level warm front will lift through early today, with an
area of clouds. Kept things VFR based on newest hi-res
guidance...but some MVFR may occur. Could even get some light
rain or snow showers across the central and northern mountains.

VFR expected today in the warm sector, with MVFR to IFR ceilings
overnight as a cold front moves through. Kept visibilities VFR
with this for now, but may eventually need to add some
restrictions there as well. Winds will be variable this morning,
becoming southerly this afternoon...and then west to northwest
tonight behind the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/18/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>031.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ