Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231835 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 235 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure tonight into Friday. More unsettled weather arrives in time for the weekend and into next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 PM Wednesday... Latest satellite imagery shows low-level clouds developed and hung around longer than anticipated. This has resulted in temperatures a degree or so cooler. In addition, a few showers were moving southeast into northern mountain counties at this time. Expect diurnal clouds and any showers will dissipate late this afternoon with the decrease in solar heating. Guidance suggests that tonight should be a good night for the development of valley fog with light wind, few clouds and wet ground. Not exactly sure how much fog will develop. However, have added fog to the forecast, especially in favored valley locations. After fog dissipates in the morning, do not expect much on the way of clouds. Under abundant sunshine, temperatures should rebound into the 80s across most lowland locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Wednesday... High pressure will continue to move eastward Thursday night and Friday. As it does, it will allow moisture to return, mainly across the SW Coal Fields and ERN KY. The chances for afternoon showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder increase on Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Wednesday... Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to move northward and eventually head our way. Whether it becomes tropical or not, moisture from this system will start move into our region starting this weekend and continue into next week. Each day chances increase for storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. PWATs also increase as well, each day and the potential for heavy downpours are possible. The possibility for flash flooding will also increase each day as well.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Wednesday... MVFR conditions were common in many locations as low-level clouds continue. In addition, a few showers had developed. Expect diurnal clouds should dissipate by 23Z resulting in VFR conditions. With mostly clear skies, light wind and wet ground in many locations, expect MVFR valley fog should develop after 06Z with IFR conditions possible in the favored valley locations after 08Z. Conditions should improve shortly after sunrise on Thursday with VFR conditions expected after 14Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this evening, low tonight and high again on Thursday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the dissipation of the clouds today could differ. Extent of IFR fog development may not occur as expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JSH

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