Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232352 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 752 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure into Friday. Upper level short wave trough pulls tropical system north out of the Gulf, to produce unsettled weather this Memorial Day weekend and short work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Wednesday... Lowered lows in the valleys per MOS this clear, calm night. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. As of 125 PM Wednesday... Latest satellite imagery shows low-level clouds developed and hung around longer than anticipated. This has resulted in temperatures a degree or so cooler. In addition, a few showers were moving southeast into northern mountain counties at this time. Expect diurnal clouds and any showers will dissipate late this afternoon with the decrease in solar heating. Guidance suggests that tonight should be a good night for the development of valley fog with light wind, few clouds and wet ground. Not exactly sure how much fog will develop. However, have added fog to the forecast, especially in favored valley locations. After fog dissipates in the morning, do not expect much on the way of clouds. Under abundant sunshine, temperatures should rebound into the 80s across most lowland locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday... High pressure will continue to move eastward Thursday night and Friday. As it does, it will allow moisture to return, mainly across the SW Coal Fields and ERN KY. The chances for afternoon showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder increase on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to move northward and eventually head our way. Whether it becomes tropical or not, moisture from this system will start move into our region starting this weekend and continue into next week. Each day chances increase for storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. PWATs also increase as well, each day and the potential for heavy downpours are possible. The possibility for flash flooding will also increase each day as well. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Wednesday... High pressure dominates this period, with VFR conditions save for valley fog overnight, mainly in the eastern valleys of WV, where VLIFR dense fog is forecast. Light north surface flow will become light and variable to calm overnight, and then light northeast, veering to southeast in the mountains, on Thursday. Local mountain/valley winds may trump the prevailing winds. Light northeast flow aloft will veer to light east overnight, and then to light southeast on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on fog overnight, otherwise high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset, and maximum intensity, of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM

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