Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 151520 AAA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Charleston WV Issued by National Weather Service JACKSON KY 1120 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Unsettled weather pattern continues through the week with daily thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1120 AM Tuesday... Made some POP adjustments through the rest of today and into tonight, based on the latest trends in the HRRR. There will be two features to focus on through late this afternoon. The main player will be weak mid-level energy as well as moisture moving in from the southeast associated with an eastern Gulf of Mexico upper level low. This will initiate convection across southeastern West Virginia later this afternoon into this evening. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will also be forming along and south of a stalled frontal boundary across the northern Ohio Valley. This cluster looks to move in a bit later, and most of this activity may skirt the northwest portion of the CWA. As such, trimmed the POPs back a bit deeper into West Virginia. As of 635 AM Tuesday... No major changes in the immediate term but took another crack at the POPS for later today. Still keeping with the bulk of the convection pushed back until after 19Z or so. As of 310 AM Tuesday... Surface low moving northeast into far eastern Canada and high pressure building in from northern Ontario will push the quasi- stationary frontal boundary southeastward as a cool front. First drops into southeastern Ohio after 18Z today, and then settles into the CWA tonight as a stationary front again. Expecting convection to be organized with this boundary, but not limited to it. Upper low affecting the deep south will push upper level disturbances northward into the southern part of the CWA, also lending a hand in increasing the POPs today. While atmosphere has not changed much in terms of its moderate instability, will lose the lower level dynamics to the east northeast through the day, so the better threat for severe will reside east of the mountains into southwestern New England. That said, still largely in the marginal risk for severe today, and slight risk for excessive rainfall over north central West Virginia. Temperatures remain above normal with mid 60s dew points prevailing. 90F possible in the lowlands prior to the arrival of the frontal boundary in 18C 850mb air.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Active pattern remains in place through the short term period. We`ll be under the squeeze play from the tropical system to our south and the northern stream activity which has been driving showers and storms across the northern forecast area for several days. This should result in more moisture and clouds across entire forecast area, with high temps not quite as warm as the last few days. Still, looking at above normal temps -- both highs and lows. For this period, have the highest POPs Thursday into Thursday night as an upper level trough or low (depending on which model) moves into the lower Ohio River Valley. This should provide plenty of moisture on southerly flow with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Unsettled pattern continues through the long term as well. Synoptically, we will see continued moisture inflow with periods of showers and thunderstorms as upper level disturbances flow by. Temperatures remain above normal. Stuck pretty close to a consensus blend. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 635 AM Tuesday... Convection expected again today, but encompassing all terminals instead of those just across the northern tier. Surface boundary will sink southward after 18Z while upper level disturbances from the Florida upper low push into the southern mountains. It will be possible to get an extended period of wet conditions with the showers and storms that will increase in coverage primarily after 21Z, but it is important to note that activity is possible prior to then. Covering the thunder with VCTS/CB with this issuance. Showers persist overnight and will be scattered in nature. Expect ceilings to come down primarily to MVFR after 06Z Wednesday and some visibility restrictions could materialize as well in developing fog after rain exits. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection timing Tuesday may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 EDT 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms through the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26/GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.