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000
FXUS61 KRLX 141741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Ohio River remains in flood into Monday. A cold front slips
into the area tonight then stalls, before returning northward as
a warm front Tuesday. A cold front crosses Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1238 PM Sunday...

Warm conditions across the area today with good southwesterly flow,
as low pressure moves east across the Great Lakes region, with a
cold front eventually sagging south into the area late tonight. Much
of the area will be dry in the near term period, with a dry air
mass/low RH in place, but dew points will gradually increase,
particularly across northern zones as we get later in the
day/evening hours. Showers and storms are expected to develop as the
front sags south into the area, with the bulk of activity in our SE
Ohio zones, possibly surviving into adjacent WV counties. Timing of
front and storm development is late, generally after 22Z, and there
is some concern as to how much convection is able to organize and
thus survive in terms of severity once it reaches our counties. SPC
does maintain a slight risk across far northern zones, and there is
a concern for evolution of storms into bowing clusters of
convection, which would carry a wind and isolated tornado threat
with it. But, as storms progress south into reduced instability,
they should generally die out as they get closer to the Ohio River
vicinity.

After this evenings convection, most of the area should be dry and
quiet overnight. The frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag
south into our area, briefly stalling out on Monday, where it will
be the focus for isold showers or even a storm on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

A frontal boundary will stall over the region on Monday. While
moisture will be limited, there is a small chance of showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the front, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. North of the front, slightly
cooler temperatures can be expect across southeast Ohio and
northern West Virginia on Monday as compared to Sunday.

A front will return northward as a warm front on Tuesday,
providing for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
This will also push afternoon temperatures well above normal for
this time of year, with readings in some locations of the
central and southern lowlands reaching 80 degrees.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase even more Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with a weak cold front pushing through the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

A cold front and weakening southern stream short wave trough
push through first thing Thursday morning, taking the last of
the showers and any thunderstorms with it. However, mid-upper
level flow backs Thursday night, as a large northern stream low
traverses south-central Canada. As this system moves through
eastern Canada Friday through Friday night, its not-so-well
defined trough axis extending southward from it pushes a
reinforcing cold front through sometime in that period.

The front will initially have little moisture to work with,
given little inflow ahead of it, coming right on the heels of
its predecessor. However, a wave forming along it in response to
an approaching southern stream short wave trough may be able to
garner more moisture. This could bring rain, perhaps a bit more
stout, next weekend. There remains a range of outcomes on this
scenario, so confidence on the weather forecast for next weekend
is low.

Central guidance reflects temperatures gradually falling from
above to near normal in the long term, even below normal on
highs over the weekend. Finally, if cool Canadian high pressure
building down into the plains next weekend can eventually build
into the forecast area, then the possibility for frost could
arise early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 138 PM Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions. However, after 22Z, isold to sct showers and
thunderstorms will develop and sag south across the area, with SE
Ohio most likely to experience convection. Large hail and damaging
winds are possible with these storms, along with brief MVFR/IFR
conditions.

Otherwise, outside of convection, gusty southwesterly winds will
continue overnight, becoming more westerly to northwesterly on
Monday. Gusts in the teens to 20 kt range will be possible at times,
with occasional 30 kt range, particularly across the mountains. In
addition, LLWS is possible at a few TAF sites overnight.

Isold showers and storms possible on Monday, mainly across WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Widespread/areas of MVFR cigs may form late
tonight across the area.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 605 AM Sunday...

  **Flooding Continues Along the Ohio River Through Monday**

Water from the Thursday`s heavy rain event continues to work
into the mainstem rivers. While flood waters have receded from
much of the area, flooding continues along portions of the Ohio
River. Minor to Moderate flooding is currently occurring from
Willow Island Lock down to near Point Pleasant. Additionally,
backwater flooding from the Ohio River on the connecting
tributaries will continue to produce water over some roadways,
even miles away from the Ohio River.

Please visit water.noaa.gov for specific river observations and
forecasts.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL

HYDROLOGY...