Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201826 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 226 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 PM Friday... High pressure remains in place through the near-term with clear skies and dry conditions. Northwesterly winds continue today and gradually lessen to light and variable over night. This combined with clear skies and dewpoints below freezing indicate a good radiational cooling night especially in sheltered valleys. As a result, have followed the low-end of temperature guidance and decreased incised valleys an additional degree or two to account for this. This of course is a 2 meter temperature and extra consideration should be taken by users for potentially lower near-ground temperatures affecting vegetation. As a result a Freeze Warning has been posted for most of the area where the grow season has been included, with a frost advisory covering the remaining zones. This now includes Dickenson (frost), Buchanan (freeze) in VA and Wyoming, McDowell (both freeze) in southern WV. NE KY, Lawrence OH, and Wayne WV are also under a frost advisory. Very dry air lurks just aloft, but low-level weak winds especially tonight and tomorrow make it tough to mix these lower values down to the surface especially as winds decrease through tomorrow. However, it bears watching as there have been localized low dew points observed today where mixing is evidently happening. Current forecast indicates minRH in the mid- to upper-20`s today with slightly lower minRH in the low- to mid-20`s tomorrow with greater afternoon warming. High cirrus clouds start to creep in from the WNW Saturday afternoon ahead of a ridge aloft. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Friday... Upper-level ridge builds over area early in the period and remains in place into Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will push east across the lower Mississippi River valley into the southeastern states. Dry weather Saturday night into Sunday will give way to precipitation chances increasing from the southwest late Sunday night into Monday. Temperature guidance looks good and was generally followed. Readings should be near normal through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Friday... Upper level systems and a cold front pushing east will result in unsettled weather through the period. As a result, expect daytime temperatures will be below normal.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 555 AM Friday... VFR expected through the TAF period. Winds go calm overnight and remain light afterward, generally from the North. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR possible should BR/FG occur tonight, however fog formation is unlikely at this time. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ006>011-013>020-024>031-033-034. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005. OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ087. KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ004. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MC NEAR TERM...MC SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MC

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