Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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130 FXUS61 KRLX 261028 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 628 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A southern system may graze the area late today into Friday. Cold fronts Friday night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 625 AM Thursday... No updates. As of 320 AM Thursday... 5h trough and associated area of surface low pressure exiting the east coast as another approaches from the lower Mississippi Valley. For today, forecast area will be under very weak high pressure, and weak surface gradients. Hence, not much wind flow. High clouds, ahead of a warm front were streaming across the KY and TN and will continue as next area of low pressure moves east. Low level moisture will diminish today over most areas as low level clouds and fog mix out with diurnal heating. But moisture will increase across southwest VA and the southern coalfields this afternoon and evening. Bumped pops over southern areas in deference to increasing confidence of short term models. Made minimal changes to temperature trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... The system moving south of the area will pull off to the east on Friday, bringing an end to the precipitation. This system will be followed by a weak cold front Friday night and a reinforcing cold front on Saturday. Models still have some timing differences, but are in much better agreement tonight in general. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday... A high pressure system will build over the area Sunday and remain through Wednesday. Temperatures will gradual warm through the period. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Thursday... Fairly widespread FG development with IFR and LIFR in Kanawha and Tug valley, as well as stretching into the southern coalfields. Further north along the Ohio and West Fork, seeing MVFR. Boundary layer should mix well today leading to drying of the low levels mid morning. Have improving conditions by around 15Z as weak high pressure moves in. Surface gradients will be weak today with light wind flow. Next system approaching from the west throwing up some high clouds across eastern KY and spreading into WV. Precipitation from this system will affect mostly eastern WV later this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: With very light flow this morning, the fog may not dissipate as quickly or abruptly. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M L L M H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY L M M L M M M H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L M M M H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H H M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible overnight tonight into Friday morning in rain in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KMC

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