Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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208 FXUS61 KRLX 231729 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure tonight into Friday. More unsettled weather arrives in time for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Wednesday... Latest satellite imagery shows low-level clouds developed and hung around longer than anticipated. This has resulted in temperatures a degree or so cooler. In addition, a few showers were moving southeast into northern mountain counties at this time. Expect diurnal clouds and any showers will dissipate late this afternoon with the decrease in solar heating. Guidance suggests that tonight should be a good night for the development of valley fog with light wind, few clouds and wet ground. Not exactly sure how much fog will develop. However, have added fog to the forecast, especially in favored valley locations. After fog dissipates in the morning, do not expect much on the way of clouds. Under abundant sunshine, temperatures should rebound into the 80s across most lowland locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Quiet as high pressure noses in from the north. This feature will shift east on Friday, such that enough return flow moisture may allow an afternoon shower or thundershower across western and far southern counties. Expect dense river valley fog each morning. Central guidance numbers were excepted with not change. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... All eyes on what happens in the northern Gulf over the next several days. Regardless of whether an area of low pressure becomes tropical in nature, the moisture from this feature will advect northward into the region over the weekend...persisting into early next week. Expect scattered showers/storms on a daily basis, primarily diurnal in nature. With relatively light flow and increasing pwats, downpours will increasingly become capable of enhancing localized flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Wednesday... MVFR conditions were common in many locations as low-level clouds continue. In addition, a few showers had developed. Expect diurnal clouds should dissipate by 23Z resulting in VFR conditions. With mostly clear skies, light wind and wet ground in many locations, expect MVFR valley fog should develop after 06Z with IFR conditions possible in the favored valley locations after 08Z. Conditions should improve shortly after sunrise on Thursday with VFR conditions expected after 14Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this evening, low tonight and high again on Thursday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the dissipation of the clouds today could differ. Extent of IFR fog development may not occur as expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H L H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JSH

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