000
FXUS61 KRLX 231525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1125 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy today ahead of a cold front. Light rain tonight
into early Wednesday. Dry and warming for the rest of the work
week. Chance for weekend showers and perhaps thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...

Dry conditions will continue today before a cold front
swings through overnight bringing generally light rain to the
region. Total rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side,
generally a tenth or two with some locally higher amounts in
orographic forcing.

Breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon and into early
evening can be expected ahead the mentioned front, however,
most locations should see a relatively brief period of lighter
winds this evening with decoupling prior to FROPA

Afternoon min RH values in the lower 20s, low 10hr fuel
moisture values, and gusts up to 25mph has prompted the issuance
of a fire danger statement for today after coordination with
land management agencies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 241 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Cold front exits east Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return behind the front later on Wednesday.
* Frost possible Thursday morning.

A cold front will push east of the eastern mountains early
Wednesday. However, another upper level shortwave pushes a
reinforcement front, bringing much colder and drier airmass to
the area. This later feature will put an end to the lingering
showers over the mountains by Wednesday evening.

Despite of dry air moving in, moisture remains trap beneath the
inversion, anticipating afternoon cu development about 4-5kft
persisting through Wednesday afternoon. Then, skies will
gradually clear up Wednesday evening.

Highs remain sightly below normal for Wednesday afternoon, generally
in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher
elevations. With cold and dry air in place, low temperatures
Wednesday night may drop into the lower 30s across northern mid Ohio
valley and northern WV.

The combination of chilly temperatures and clearing skies, will
allow for areas of frost to develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 241 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Dry with warming trend Thursday and Friday
* Next system arrives late Friday into the weekend.
* Becoming hot during the weekend possibly reaching the lower 80s.

Strong surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, extending
south into the OH valley and WV Thursday. This high will provide dry
weather conditions with a warming trend through the end of the week.

Precipitation returns Friday and Friday night as a warm front
develops across the south, establishing southwest flow and moisture
advection. Showers continues Saturday as the warm front lifts north
across the area. While the area remains on the warm sector, moisture
and instability builds mainly west of the area, while a series of
shortwaves cross aloft. These two features will act to support the
potential for thunderstorms on Saturday.

A warming trend continues, becoming hot over the weekend, with
lowland temperatures reaching the 80s on Saturday, and the mid 80s
on Sunday.

Still uncertain how the weather will evolve after the weekend with
as upper level ridge axis exiting east of the area, while upper level
disturbances approach from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1035 AM Tuesday...

VFR expected through the day before light rain and MVFR
cigs accompany a crossing front this evening and overnight.
Precipitation will be largely east of ports by daybreak.

Southwesterly winds of 5-12KTs with gusts 15-20KTs in the
afternoon and evening hours...veering to the west after FROPA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

NOTE:
The Flight Category Consistency Table is unavailable at
ths time.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain showers and stratus early
Wednesday morning, especially near the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPK