-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191734
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
134 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing cold front brings showers/storms through late this evening.
Cooler/drier this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday ahead
of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1258 PM Friday...

Cold front, currently near the Ohio River will continue to push east
this afternoon and evening, ending up east of the CWA late tonight.
Showers and storms will refire along this front, and some breaks in
the clouds have been noted, which will help to increase instability
and storm development this afternoon. Still a possibility for an
isolated strong to severe storm, mainly across southern portions of
the CWA, with a damaging wind risk the main threat.

Conditions will improve late tonight with some clearing possible.
Much in the way of fog development is not anticipated due to a light
wind lingering across the area before pressure gradient relaxes
towards morning. Saturday looks to be dry, with mid to high clouds
returning later in the period from a disturbance to our south
and west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high
pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst
Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest
undefended border.

Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may
yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some
more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Friday...

Lingering surface high pressure across the southeast CONUS will
continue to provide dry weather for the start of the extended
period. This will be short lived, however, as a cold front
shifts southeast towards the area from the Great Lakes region.
While Tuesday is progged to remain mainly dry, it could be a
bit breezy amid a tightening pressure gradient. Did trim
afternoon RH values down a bit from central guidance, with mid
20s to mid 30s across the area. High temperatures on Tuesday
return into the upper 60s to low 70s across the lowlands.

Scattered showers (and perhaps isolated storms) move across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front crosses.
Rainfall at this point looks relatively light, generally
0.25-0.50", and will probably be a welcomed rain by midweek as
the region continues to dry out. High temperatures on Wednesday
will generally be 5-10 degrees cooler following the passage of
the front, amid the potential for isolated showers.

High pressure noses into the region Wednesday night through the
remainder of the period, resulting in a return of dry weather,
mostly clear skies, and a gradual warming trend. Patchy frost is
a possibility both Wednesday and Thursday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 133 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and storms will refire this afternoon as a cold
front moves through the area. Most shower and storm activity will be
east/south of the Ohio River. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty
winds can be expected in vicinity of storms.

Otherwise, behind the front, expect a period of MVFR cigs, with
MVFR/IFR cigs possible across mainly the higher terrain. Conditions
will gradually improve to VFR area wide from north to south/west to
east after 00Z, with mountains improving to VFR after  09-12Z. Winds
could be gusty at times on Saturday, with occasional gusts in the
teens.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions
may vary from forecast. Timing of improvement to VFR may vary
from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...SL