Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201802 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Friday... High pressure remains in place through the near-term with clear skies and dry conditions. Northwesterly winds continue today and gradually lessen to light and variable over night. This combined with clear skies and dewpoints below freezing indicate a good radiational cooling night especially in sheltered valleys. As a result, have followed the low-end of temperature guidance and decreased incised valleys an additional degree or two to account for this. This of course is a 2 meter temperature and extra consideration should be taken by users for potentially lower near-ground temperatures affecting vegetation. As a result a Freeze Warning has been posted for most of the area where the grow season has been included, with a frost advisory covering the remaining zones. This now includes Dickenson (frost), Buchanan (freeze) in VA and Wyoming, McDowell (both freeze) in southern WV. NE KY, Lawrence OH, and Wayne WV are also under a frost advisory. Very dry air lurks just aloft, but low-level weak winds especially tonight and tomorrow make it tough to mix these lower values down to the surface especially as winds decrease through tomorrow. However, it bears watching as there have been localized low dew points observed today where mixing is evidently happening. Current forecast indicates minRH in the mid- to upper-20`s today with slightly lower minRH in the low- to mid-20`s tomorrow with greater afternoon warming. High cirrus clouds start to creep in from the WNW Saturday afternoon ahead of a ridge aloft.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Friday... This weekend looks quiet and mild, though an abundance of high clouds will help to filter out the sun during the day. Sunday will be the warmest as low level southeast flow boosts afternoon highs, probably a hair past the warmest guidance. An upper level system approaches Monday and becomes absorbed by an advancing trof in the northern stream Monday night. This spells an unsettled start to the work week, with rain developing from south to north late Monday. Most of the higher rainfall amounts should stay east of the CWA, though strong easterly low level flow is likely to lead to bullseye amounts on our eastern slopes by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 AM Friday... The upper level system departs to the north late Tuesday, though another impulse within the mean trof will rotate through Wednesday and Thursday. This will maintain the threat of showers, though it will continue to be mild. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 555 AM Friday... VFR expected through the TAF period. Winds go calm overnight and remain light afterward, generally from the North. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR possible should BR/FG occur tonight, however fog formation is unlikely at this time. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/MC NEAR TERM...MC SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MC

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