Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 270038
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
838 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers diminish throughout this evening in advance of a cold front.
The front crosses Wednesday with isolated showers in the mountains.
Building high pressure then brings mainly dry weather through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Tuesday...
Updated PoPs to represent increased rain chances early this
evening across portions of the region as a warm front quickly
slides north of the area. Drier conditions will build in quickly
thereafter. Much of the forecast area has received a beneficial
wetting to soaking rain today, with 0.50-1.00" across much of
the central/northern CWA (locally higher in spots). Moderate
rises on the susceptible creeks/rivers in Washington County,
Ohio (Duck Creek / Little Muskingum River) are currently being
observed. Will continue to monitor this, as there is the potential
for gauge levels to approach Minor Flood Stage later this
evening into tonight. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 123 PM Tuesday...
Lingering light showers continue as a weak cold front arrives to the
Middle Ohio valley early this evening. Little rain accumulations are
expected with this front. The cold front slowly exits east of the
Appalachians Wednesday evening. Surface high pressure builds from
the west providing relatively dry weather conditions later on
Wednesday. A low chance for lingering rain showers exist for
Wednesday mainly near the mountains. Although clouds could clear out
across the lowlands Wednesday night and Thursday, low level clouds
will remains over the higher elevations through the period.
A mild night is expected with about 10 degrees above normal
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in mid 60s to mid
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1248 PM Tuesday...
Low pressure will exit to the east Thursday and high pressure will
build back in from the west with increasing 500-mb heights. This
should allow for some gradual clearing areawide with sunshine
returning by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Thursday`s
temperatures will run on the cooler side for late March with highs
in the upper 50s across the lowlands and the lower 50s in the
mountains. Average highs for late March are generally in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1248 PM Tuesday...
Dry conditions are expected Friday, but winds will turn gusty as low
pressure strengthens off of the Atlantic coast and high pressure
expands over the Southeast, creating a strong pressure gradient over
our area. The highest threat of gusty winds remains in the higher
elevations, but the lowlands will also be quite breezy. Rain chances
will increase again Saturday as a wave of upper-level energy
approaches from the west and a stationary front drapes across the
middle Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians. From Saturday
onward, we`ll enter into an unsettled pattern with rain chances just
about each day heading into the new work week. Models currently show
a large area of low pressure tracking through the area next Tuesday,
with high pressure building behind the front by the middle of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 825 PM Tuesday...
Showers have quickly exited the area for the most part, with
just isolated showers possible across the mountains into
Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions will persist across
the rest of the region. A cold front will slowly cross tonight
into Wednesday, bringing a lowering of ceilings. Mainly VFR
ceilings to start the night will transition to MVFR across most
locations S/E of the Ohio River by dawn, with even IFR in/near
the higher terrain. There is also the potential for fog development
tonight depending on the amount of clearing that persists.
Given significant uncertainty in location/timing of any fog
development, it has been left out of the TAFs for the time
being. Stratus will gradually transition into MVFR stratocu
throughout the morning and early afternoon, with VFR returning
area-wide by late afternoon.
Southeast surface flow will gradually veer to SW/W by dawn.
Occasional gusts of 15-25 kts are possible early tonight,
particularly in/near the higher terrain. Additionally, did code
in LLWS into a few TAFs early tonight where light surface flow
is progged. Light westerly flow is anticipated on Wednesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight into
Wednesday may vary. Fog development tonight may be greater than
currently anticipated, potentially resulting in MVFR/IFR VSBY
restrictions.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 03/27/24
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M L L H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H L H H H H L H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible early Thursday morning in and near
the mountains with low stratus.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 620 PM Tuesday...
Scattered showers move across the region through this evening in
advance of a cold front, with much of the area having received a
wetting to soaking rain today. Breezy conditions across portions of
the area will gradually taper throughout tonight, with the same
being true for rainfall. The potential for a few lingering showers
continues in and near the mountains into Wednesday as the cold front
gradually moves through.
Building high pressure will then bring a mainly dry finish to the
work week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity
values lower into the 25-35% range Thursday afternoon, but under
generally light surface flow. Friday afternoon will be on the breezy
side amid relative humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance
for showers returns this weekend.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW
FIRE WEATHER...GW