Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270038 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 838 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers diminish throughout this evening in advance of a cold front. The front crosses Wednesday with isolated showers in the mountains. Building high pressure then brings mainly dry weather through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 620 PM Tuesday... Updated PoPs to represent increased rain chances early this evening across portions of the region as a warm front quickly slides north of the area. Drier conditions will build in quickly thereafter. Much of the forecast area has received a beneficial wetting to soaking rain today, with 0.50-1.00" across much of the central/northern CWA (locally higher in spots). Moderate rises on the susceptible creeks/rivers in Washington County, Ohio (Duck Creek / Little Muskingum River) are currently being observed. Will continue to monitor this, as there is the potential for gauge levels to approach Minor Flood Stage later this evening into tonight. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 123 PM Tuesday... Lingering light showers continue as a weak cold front arrives to the Middle Ohio valley early this evening. Little rain accumulations are expected with this front. The cold front slowly exits east of the Appalachians Wednesday evening. Surface high pressure builds from the west providing relatively dry weather conditions later on Wednesday. A low chance for lingering rain showers exist for Wednesday mainly near the mountains. Although clouds could clear out across the lowlands Wednesday night and Thursday, low level clouds will remains over the higher elevations through the period. A mild night is expected with about 10 degrees above normal temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in mid 60s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1248 PM Tuesday... Low pressure will exit to the east Thursday and high pressure will build back in from the west with increasing 500-mb heights. This should allow for some gradual clearing areawide with sunshine returning by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Thursday`s temperatures will run on the cooler side for late March with highs in the upper 50s across the lowlands and the lower 50s in the mountains. Average highs for late March are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1248 PM Tuesday... Dry conditions are expected Friday, but winds will turn gusty as low pressure strengthens off of the Atlantic coast and high pressure expands over the Southeast, creating a strong pressure gradient over our area. The highest threat of gusty winds remains in the higher elevations, but the lowlands will also be quite breezy. Rain chances will increase again Saturday as a wave of upper-level energy approaches from the west and a stationary front drapes across the middle Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians. From Saturday onward, we`ll enter into an unsettled pattern with rain chances just about each day heading into the new work week. Models currently show a large area of low pressure tracking through the area next Tuesday, with high pressure building behind the front by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 825 PM Tuesday... Showers have quickly exited the area for the most part, with just isolated showers possible across the mountains into Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions will persist across the rest of the region. A cold front will slowly cross tonight into Wednesday, bringing a lowering of ceilings. Mainly VFR ceilings to start the night will transition to MVFR across most locations S/E of the Ohio River by dawn, with even IFR in/near the higher terrain. There is also the potential for fog development tonight depending on the amount of clearing that persists. Given significant uncertainty in location/timing of any fog development, it has been left out of the TAFs for the time being. Stratus will gradually transition into MVFR stratocu throughout the morning and early afternoon, with VFR returning area-wide by late afternoon. Southeast surface flow will gradually veer to SW/W by dawn. Occasional gusts of 15-25 kts are possible early tonight, particularly in/near the higher terrain. Additionally, did code in LLWS into a few TAFs early tonight where light surface flow is progged. Light westerly flow is anticipated on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday may vary. Fog development tonight may be greater than currently anticipated, potentially resulting in MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/27/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M L L H BKW CONSISTENCY M H L H H H H L H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible early Thursday morning in and near the mountains with low stratus.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... As of 620 PM Tuesday... Scattered showers move across the region through this evening in advance of a cold front, with much of the area having received a wetting to soaking rain today. Breezy conditions across portions of the area will gradually taper throughout tonight, with the same being true for rainfall. The potential for a few lingering showers continues in and near the mountains into Wednesday as the cold front gradually moves through. Building high pressure will then bring a mainly dry finish to the work week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity values lower into the 25-35% range Thursday afternoon, but under generally light surface flow. Friday afternoon will be on the breezy side amid relative humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance for showers returns this weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...GW FIRE WEATHER...GW

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