-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 230647
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
247 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy today ahead of a cold front. Light rain tonight
into early Wednesday. Dry and warming for the rest of the work
week. Chance for weekend showers and perhaps thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Southwesterly flow increases today in response to surface high
pressure shifting east across the Deep South as a compact area of
surface low pressure transits the Upper Great Lakes. A combination
of warm advection and ample late April Sun angle will get us quickly
away from our frosty morning lows with afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Deep mixing in a dry airmass to even
drier air aloft will yield low afternoon relative humidity
values in the lower 20s for most locations across the forecast
area. Winds will also be on the breezier side this afternoon
with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Live fuel moisture seems largely fine
with a strong on going green up, but dead fuel moisture, in 10hr
fuels and lighter continues to dry out. Some coordination was
done with land management agencies yesterday with those that
were contacted in favor of a fire danger statement for this
afternoon. Will be collaborating with our neighbors whether any
statements are issued with the morning package, or if additional
land management coordination is needed for statements that
would come later this morning.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned area of low pressure
swings through overnight bringing generally light rain to the
region. Total rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side,
generally a tenth or two across the region with some locally higher
amounts in orographic forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 241 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Cold front exits east Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return behind the front later on Wednesday.
* Frost possible Thursday morning.

A cold front will push east of the eastern mountains early
Wednesday. However, another upper level shortwave pushes a
reinforcement front, bringing much colder and drier airmass to
the area. This later feature will put an end to the lingering
showers over the mountains by Wednesday evening.

Despite of dry air moving in, moisture remains trap beneath the
inversion, anticipating afternoon cu development about 4-5kft
persisting through Wednesday afternoon. Then, skies will
gradually clear up Wednesday evening.

Highs remain sightly below normal for Wednesday afternoon, generally
in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher
elevations. With cold and dry air in place, low temperatures
Wednesday night may drop into the lower 30s across northern mid Ohio
valley and northern WV.

The combination of chilly temperatures and clearing skies, will
allow for areas of frost to develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 241 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Dry with warming trend Thursday and Friday
* Next system arrives late Friday into the weekend.
* Becoming hot during the weekend possibly reaching the lower 80s.

Strong surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, extending
south into the OH valley and WV Thursday. This high will provide dry
weather conditions with a warming trend through the end of the week.

Precipitation returns Friday and Friday night as a warm front
develops across the south, establishing southwest flow and moisture
advection. Showers continues Saturday as the warm front lifts north
across the area. While the area remains on the warm sector, moisture
and instability builds mainly west of the area, while a series of
shortwaves cross aloft. These two features will act to support the
potential for thunderstorms on Saturday.

A warming trend continues, becoming hot over the weekend, with
lowland temperatures reaching the 80s on Saturday, and the mid 80s
on Sunday.

Still uncertain how the weather will evolve after the weekend with
as upper level ridge axis exiting east of the area, while upper level
disturbances approach from the west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Just FEW-SCT cirrus to contend with for much of the daylight hours
today as southwesterly flow increases ahead of cold frontal passage
light. Light rain and MVFR ceilings after 02Z with activity along
the cold front - precipitation continues through the end of this TAF
set.

Winds generally southwesterly, 5-12KTs with gusts 15-20KTs this
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 04/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain showers and stratus early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Tightening gradients ahead of a cold front will yield a breezy
and dry day today with afternoon gusts 20 to 25 mph and
afternoon RH values in the lower to mid 20s. Although live fuels
are generally doing fine moisture wise, dead fuels, especially
dead fuels finer than 10hr are quite dry and ready to carry
fire. Some coordination was done yesterday with land management
agencies about a fire danger statement for today, and at least a
portion of the area will likely need to be covered. Still
working out whether this will be issued with the early morning
package or with a late morning update.

Light rain arrives tonight but forecast amounts between a tenth
and two tenths will likely not fully address fuel moisture
concerns.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005-006-008-
     013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ105.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP

FIRE WEATHER...