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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and breezy today ahead of a cold front. Light rain tonight
into early Wednesday. Dry and warming for the rest of the work
week. Chance for weekend showers and perhaps thunderstorms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Southwesterly flow increases today in response to surface high
pressure shifting east across the Deep South as a compact area of
surface low pressure transits the Upper Great Lakes. A combination
of warm advection and ample late April Sun angle will get us quickly
away from our frosty morning lows with afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Deep mixing in a dry airmass to even
drier air aloft will yield low afternoon relative humidity
values in the lower 20s for most locations across the forecast
area. Winds will also be on the breezier side this afternoon
with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Live fuel moisture seems largely fine
with a strong on going green up, but dead fuel moisture, in 10hr
fuels and lighter continues to dry out. Some coordination was
done with land management agencies yesterday with those that
were contacted in favor of a fire danger statement for this
afternoon. Will be collaborating with our neighbors whether any
statements are issued with the morning package, or if additional
land management coordination is needed for statements that
would come later this morning.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned area of low pressure
swings through overnight bringing generally light rain to the
region. Total rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side,
generally a tenth or two across the region with some locally higher
amounts in orographic forcing.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Cold front crosses Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return by late Wednesday.

A cold front arrives Tuesday night and spreads precipitation across
the area as it progresses eastward into Wednesday morning. While a
rumble of thunder or two cannot be completely discounted during the
frontal passage, potential is rather low due to a lack of
instability. The front exits to the east Wednesday morning,
then showers taper off from west to east allowing drier
conditions to return to the area by evening. Total precipitation
amounts from Tuesday night through Wednesday should be light,
generally amounting to less than half an inch.

Low temperatures for Tuesday night are expected to range from 40s to
low 50s. Highs remain below normal during the day Wednesday,
with upper 50s to 60s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low 60s
for the mountains. A cool, dry air mass builds in behind the
front Wednesday night and allows low temperatures to dip into
the 30s to low 40s. Between chilly temperatures and clearing
skies, frost may develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Frost possible Thursday morning.
* System arrives late week into the weekend.
* Warming trend sets in late this week into early next week.

High pressure brings another period of dry weather Thursday
through Thursday night, then a more active pattern initiates
with a late week system.

Precipitation chances increase Friday into Saturday as a low
tracks out of the Central Plains towards Ontario and lifts a
warm front towards and then across the CWA. This low progresses
east away from the area during the weekend, while another low
tracks out of the southwest US and into the Central Plains. The
second system then continues northeast towards the Great Lakes
early in the new work week. During this time, southerly flow
continues to transport warm, moist air into the CWA and sustains
chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms into early next
week.

After a brisk, potentially frosty Thursday morning,
temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s to low 70s in the
lowlands and mid 50s to 60s in the mountains. A stout warming
trend then takes hold and allows temperatures to rise above
normal this weekend. Above normal temperatures persist early
next week, with highs likely to rise into the 80s across much of
the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Just FEW-SCT cirrus to contend with for much of the daylight hours
today as southwesterly flow increases ahead of cold frontal passage
light. Light rain and MVFR ceilings after 02Z with activity along
the cold front - precipitation continues through the end of this TAF
set.

Winds generally southwesterly, 5-12KTs with gusts 15-20KTs this
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 04/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain showers and stratus early
Wednesday morning.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Tightening gradients ahead of a cold front will yield a breezy
and dry day today with afternoon gusts 20 to 25 mph and
afternoon RH values in the lower to mid 20s. Although live fuels
are generally doing fine moisture wise, dead fuels, especially
dead fuels finer than 10hr are quite dry and ready to carry
fire. Some coordination was done yesterday with land management
agencies about a fire danger statement for today, and at least a
portion of the area will likely need to be covered. Still
working out whether this will be issued with the early morning
package or with a late morning update.

Light rain arrives tonight but forecast amounts between a tenth
and two tenths will likely not fully address fuel moisture
concerns.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005-006-008-
     013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ105.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JP
FIRE WEATHER...JP