Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150602 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 202 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front Thursday. High pressure Friday. Warming weather over the weekend with chances of precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 200 AM Thursday... The likelihood for snow showers in the northern mountains does not appear to be that high Thursday morning. Meanwhile, altocu models forecast to form due to mid level warm advection overnight, was quickly doing so. As of 935 PM Wednesday... Will update pops to remove snow around midnight as models indicate a lull before moisture from the next system arrives. As of 735 PM Wednesday... Based on current satellite and meso model trends, will lower sky cover this evening in the western and southern counties. As of 247 PM Wednesday... Upslope snow showers will continue to wane this evening and into tonight as drier air works in at low levels and the flow becomes more westerly with high pressure building into the southeast Conus. A few high elevation locations might pick up a dusting from remaining snow showers, but the overall trend continues to be for them to diminish and with loss of daytime heating only the higher mountains should be affected by late evening. The persistent cloud cover and snow cover on the ground led to temperatures generally below guidance today and this trend should continue into tonight. Warm air advection aloft will begin tonight as the upper trough axis moves east. Disturbances in northwest flow should lead to persistent stratocu and some additional snow showers in the mountains with little accumulation. Winds should continue to stir through the night, especially in the mountains as the gradient between high pressure building into the southeast and a cold front approaching keeps the boundary layer mixed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 247 PM Wednesday... Another disturbance moving through in northwest flow and a cold front moving across the area will lead to the potential for snow showers in the mountains and some rain showers or sprinkles in nearby lower elevations during the day on Thursday. Temperatures should be below guidance with snow on the ground in several locations and expected persistent cloud cover. The front and daytime heating should lead to wind gusts into the 20 to 25 mph range with higher gusts in the mountains. This activity should linger a bit in the more northern mountains into Thursday evening with an upslope component. However, this is expected to diminish late. High pressure will nose into the region and bring dry weather to the remainder of the area with slackening winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 PM Wednesday... Models are in reasonable agreement through DY5, Sunday and then begin to diverge more significantly from there through to the end of the period. In general the pattern aloft becomes less amplified and a bit more progressive with time. Short wave disturbance will track through the Ohio Valley and across our area Friday night through Saturday night. A transient and weakening mid-upper level ridge will provide a brief shot of quiet weather until a developing storm system rides out of the plains and into the region by late Monday, which then keeps our weather unsettled through the remainder of the extended. At the surface a wave of low pressure will pass through the south central Appalachians Saturday, weakening with time. Transient surface high pressure will pass briefly through the area before a second, stronger storm system rides into the Appalachians from the west, exiting to our northeast by the end of the period. Sensible weather features a generally unsettled weather pattern. Precipitation overspreads the area from the west late Friday night into Saturday morning. At present it appears that precipitation will fall in the form of rain, but could begin as a wintry mix briefly at the onset across the far north and northeast. Diminishing showers linger into Sunday morning and may transition into snow at higher elevations along the VA border before ending early. Weather dries out until late Monday as precipitation once again overspreads the area again from the west, this time in the form of rain. Wrap around moisture on the back side of this exiting system and colder air filtering in from the north will trigger another round of upslope snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures moderate through the extended, to near normal by Sunday and Monday before dropping slightly to seasonably cool levels to wrap up the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Thursday... Brisk surface flow of dry air will maintain VFR conditions this period. A cold front will cross Thursday morning, shifting the southwest winds to a more favored upslope direction, back to the west to northwest. Snow showers are possible in the northern WV mountains Thursday morning, and again Thursday night, but associated restrictions are likely to remain limited to the higher elevations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A snow shower could bring brief MVFR conditions, perhaps IFR visibility, at EKn Thursday morning or Thursday night. Gusty winds will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/15/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Widespread IFR not expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY NEAR TERM...TRM/JP/RPY SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.