Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241737 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 137 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure into Friday. Upper level short wave trough pulls tropical system north out of the Gulf, to produce unsettled weather this Memorial Day weekend and short work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM Thursday... Fog is dissipating, and no major changes have been made to the forecast this morning. As of 110 AM Thursday... A high pressure system will slide across the area today and tonight. This will generally provide dry weather, although soundings indicate that there might be enough low level moisture to pop an afternoon shower in southwestern VA. Due to dry air aloft and the mixing height tapping that dry air this afternoon, expect dewpoints to be on the lower side of guidance. This combined with good radiation conditions tonight, should allow temperatures toward the lower end of MOS guidance for overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Thursday... High pressure slides east on Friday. Moisture advection on return flow combined with enough heating...may be enough to to spark a few afternoon showers or thundershowers across southern WV, northeast KY, and southwest VA. These should subside during the evening with loss of heating. Regardless whether an area of low pressure across the northern Gulf becomes tropical in nature, the moisture from this feature will advect northward into the region over the weekend. Expect scattered showers/storms on a daily basis, primarily diurnal in nature. With relatively light flow and increasing pwats, downpours will increasingly become capable of enhancing localized flooding concerns by Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 AM Thursday... Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will slowly move into the southern states, essentially becoming cutoff from the westerlies early next week. This will keep the threat of scattered showers and storms each day going, with localized flash flood concerns each day amid high pwats and light flow. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Thursday... VFR. FEW/SCT cumulus field will dissipate this evening. Model soundings not depicting fog tonight, nor is the LAMP guidance, and will leave it out of the forecast. Mid level moisture increases from the south, encroaching the southern mountains and KBKW by 18Z Friday. Winds less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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