Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212113 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 513 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak warm front moves northward today. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure to end the work week but more unsettled weather arrives in time for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 510 PM Monday...Increased PoP across most of the area with thunderstorms being more widespread than previously forecast. Radar is indicating numerous outflow boundaries that have been the focus for new convection to initiate. Some storms have been able to reach severe limits and this threat will continue into this evening until about sunset. Flash flooding is also a concern at this time. As of 145 PM Monday... Front which was stalled near I-64 is starting to drift back north early this afternoon... a trend which should continue through the remaining of the afternoon. Starting to get showers popping up near and south of the front which will also gradually expand in the instability of the warm sector this afternoon and drift northward into this evening. Also currently have a cluster of showers and storms approaching the far NW forecast area which. Models had been struggling a bit with activity north of the front, but HRRR seems to have latched on to this and carries it across the NW corner of the CWA over the next couple hours. Shear is not all that great today -- 0-6km bulk shear maxes out around 25kts across the west and north, but with plenty of instability some storms may become strong to severe with gusty outflow and hail the main threat. With slower storm motion and precipitable water around 1.5 inches, any repetitive cells could lead to isolated water concerns. In a rather juicy atmosphere think at least some isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger through the night so kept POPs going. A cold front will approach from the west late Tuesday. Ahead of this front we should see areas of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Did go with an area of likely POPs crossing from west to east through the day associated with an upper level shortwave trough running out ahead of the surface cold front. With lots of clouds around all day, instability is pretty sparse, but with the upper level support and some surface convergence an isolated stronger storm or two is possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 344 PM Tuesday... The cold front will pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a good chance showers and a few thunderstorms. A drier airmass moves in behind this front by Wednesday afternoon and persists through Thursday night. Dewpoints drop into the 50s behind the front so a dry and rather comfortable period is expected Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 344 PM Tuesday... High pressure moves east of the area on Friday, and return flow begins to transport increasing amounts of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic into our area. Dewpoints will increase into the 60s on Friday and there will be a small chance for a shower and/or storm to develop over our southern counties. This threat for showers/storms will then expand northward Saturday through Monday. Generally kept with the blended model guidance for the weekend forecast to wash out any model differences regarding how fast the moisture returns and the track of the responsible storm system which develops over the Gulf. This results in chance PoPs throughout the weekend with highs in the 80s Friday and Saturday, dropping to the 70s to near 80 on Monday. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Monday... A warm front will lift through today with showers and thunderstorms. Very tough to time these out to any specific terminal so went with general vicinity mention right now and expect amendments will be needed as cells approach different sites. Coverage low enough to let this fall off overnight, but still expect some echos on radar overnight. Ahead of a cold front, expect more showers and storms on Tuesday. Any storms will be capable of brief restrictions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions with convection could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into Tuesday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE/30 AVIATION...MZ

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