-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through Tuesday. Rain returns Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front. Dry and warming through the end of the work week. Becoming
hot with next chances of rain for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1140 AM Monday...

Quick update to cloud cover throughout the afternoon hours to account
for FEW/SCT diurnal Cu field that has developed south/east of the
Ohio River. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 900 AM Monday...

After a chilly start this morning with many locations down
below freezing, temperatures have begun to steadily warm under
wall to wall sunshine. Given such, the Frost Advisory was allowed
to expire at 9 AM. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 620 AM Monday...

Made some minor tweaks to temperatures this morning to better
reflect cold air drainage.

As of 120 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure slowly shifts east across the region today,
exiting east overnight tonight with little in the way of sensible
weather concerns. Clear skies, relatively light winds, and dry low
levels have allowed temperatures to plummet this morning with
several cold spots across the Middle Ohio Valley already near
freezing. Will certainly have some patchy freeze in addition to a
widespread frost this morning, but the horse is already out of the
barn so little benefit from selectively upgrading to freeze warnings.

A dry airmass in place coupled with late April Sun angles will yield
a healthy warm up off of chilly morning lows with afternoon highs
across the lower elevations in the lowe to mid 60s. With dew point
values in the mid 20s this afternoon this will make for some rather
dry relative humidity values in the lower to mid 20s. Winds will be
light through the period, so little in the way of fire weather
concerns, especially with the green up now well under way for all of
the lower elevations.

Could have at least some patchy additional frost tonight - most
likely in the Southern Coalfields, although there will be a couple
things working against it: 1.) Increasing mid-level cloudiness ahead
of the next system approaching Tuesday night 2.) Increasing
southwesterly flow toward dawn should promote mixing where cold air
has not become entrenched in cold air drainage early in the night.

Will pass the decision for additional frost/freeze highlights to the
day shift - to be determined once this morning`s highlights
fall off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 225 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Cold front crosses Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return by late Wednesday.

A cold front arrives Tuesday night and spreads precipitation across
the area as it progresses eastward into Wednesday morning. While a
rumble of thunder or two cannot be completely discounted during the
frontal passage, potential is rather low due to a lack of
instability. The front exits to the east Wednesday morning,
then showers taper off from west to east allowing drier
conditions to return to the area by evening. Total precipitation
amounts from Tuesday night through Wednesday should be light,
generally amounting to less than half an inch.

Low temperatures for Tuesday night are expected to range from 40s to
low 50s. Highs remain below normal during the day Wednesday,
with upper 50s to 60s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low 60s
for the mountains. A cool, dry air mass builds in behind the
front Wednesday night and allows low temperatures to dip into
the 30s to low 40s. Between chilly temperatures and clearing
skies, frost may develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Frost possible Thursday morning.
* System arrives late week into the weekend.
* Warming trend sets in late this week into early next week.

High pressure brings another period of dry weather Thursday
through Thursday night, then a more active pattern initiates
with a late week system.

Precipitation chances increase Friday into Saturday as a low
tracks out of the Central Plains towards Ontario and lifts a
warm front towards and then across the CWA. This low progresses
east away from the area during the weekend, while another low
tracks out of the southwest US and into the Central Plains. The
second system then continues northeast towards the Great Lakes
early in the new work week. During this time, southerly flow
continues to transport warm, moist air into the CWA and sustains
chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms into early next
week.

After a brisk, potentially frosty Thursday morning,
temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s to low 70s in the
lowlands and mid 50s to 60s in the mountains. A stout warming
trend then takes hold and allows temperatures to rise above
normal this weekend. Above normal temperatures persist early
next week, with highs likely to rise into the 80s across much of
the lowlands.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 620 AM Monday...

Mainly clear skies through the day today with high clouds
starting to filter into the region tonight ahead of a system
slated to arrive Tuesday night.

Winds generally light and northwesterly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions in rain showers and stratus are possible early
Wednesday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ005-006-
     008-013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ105.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP/JLB
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JP