Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181424 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1024 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift through the area today. Another cold front moves through tonight into Thursday, with upslope snow Thursday night into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1020 AM Wednesday... Made minor modification to dewpoint values for fire weather purposes. Warm front will continue to lift north today with mostly mid level clouds. High pressure will give way as an area of low pressure and an associated cold front, which will pass through late tonight with a band of precipitation. Forecast trends are on track and no major changes planed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... Light rain and snow showers to start the period on Thursday, as an upper shortwave trough moves through the region, transitioning to light upslope rain and snow showers later in the day Thursday into Friday in northwesterly flow. Temperatures on Thursday may take an initial fall, before steadying out somewhat as the day progresses. Little to no accumulation is expected from snow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... High pressure, with dry, and gradually warming conditions over the weekend as upper ridging across the central U.S. builds and shifts eastward with time. Conditions will be quite dry over the weekend, with RH`s dipping into the 20 to 30 percent range, but winds overall will be quite light, thereby mitigating a significant fire threat. Precipitation chances return early next week as a low in southern stream moves east across the southern U.S., with best chances for precipitation across far southern and eastern zones. Another front for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Wednesday... A mid level warm front will lift through early today, with an area of clouds. Kept things VFR based on newest hi-res guidance...but some MVFR may occur. VFR expected today in the warm sector, with MVFR to IFR ceilings overnight as a cold front moves through. Kept visibilities VFR with this for now, but may eventually need to add some restrictions there as well. Winds will be variable this morning, becoming southerly this afternoon...and then west to northwest tonight behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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