Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181945 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface wave exits tonight. Upper system crosses this weekend. Weak disturbances cross early next week. Cold front crosses mid week, followed by high pressure to end the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Friday... The muggy, unsettled pattern continues in the near term period. Upper low continues to linger across the Mississippi Valley region today, with multiple disturbances crossing through the region, and a good moisture fetch from the south. Still looking like best chances for thunderstorms will be across the western 2/3 of the CWA where better instability will lie, but an isolated thunder threat cant be completely ruled out area wide. Models are pretty consistent in indicating an uptick in the precipitation tonight, particularly across northeastern zones, as a shortwave moves through the region. Did elect to extend the flood watch across the north by a few hours tonight to cover this period, although think overall threat will remain fairly low. Southern half of flood watch should be able to expire as planned this evening, if not be dropped early. Low will open into a wave later this evening, with upper shortwave trough moving east across the area on Saturday, with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong wind gusts, although overall threat looks low. SPC has placed much of the CWA in a marginal risk for Saturday. Storms should move well tomorrow, thereby decreasing threats for flooding, but localized issues wont be completely out of the question, particularly if an area sees multiple rounds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM Friday... Models are slower with an upper level short wave trough, that may now take until Sunday to exit completely out of the area. As such, showers and thunderstorms remain likely well into the night Saturday night, with the chance going into Sunday, mainly across eastern portions of the forecast area. 0-6 km bulk shear remains progged for Saturday evening in the mountains, to go with 1000-1500 J/Kg, and SPC maintained the marginal risk. Stability increases quickly in the evening, with some indication of a cool pool over WV suggestive of a bowing line of convection ahead of it, and a bowing line of storms has sometimes panned out in the past when this signature was shown in the past. The forecast for Sunday night through Monday night depends largely upon where a surface front associated with the weekend short wave ends up. Models diverge here on whether the front meanders over the area, keeping the weather unsettled, or sets up mostly north of the area for less unsettled, but warmer and more humid weather. Central guidance keeps temperatures above normal, with mid 80s by day and mid 60s by night across much of the lowlands.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 345 PM Friday... Models are a little later with a cold front crossing mid week, so the weather may remain unsettled into Wednesday. An upper level short wave trough pushes the cold front through Tuesday night or early Wednesday while phasing into a long wave trough, that sets up over the Canadian / New England Maritimes as a long wave ridge sets up over the upper midwest. This should set us up with drier weather later next week, with slightly lower temperatures and dew points, but still above normal on the former /and probably the latter/.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Friday... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the TAF period, with periods of MVFR and IFR in precipitation. Most of the area will remain VFR today outside of showers/storms, however, higher terrain locations, such as BKW may remain MVFR or even develop IFR conditions late tonight in southeast upslope flow, and continued rounds of precipitation. In addition, a period of heavier precipitation is possible particularly after 02Z across northeastern WV, affecting sites KEKN and KCKB, creating MVFR/IFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage again after 15Z Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread IFR conditions may occur tonight in precipitation, particularly across the northeast, than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L H M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M H L L L L L L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend and again for the beginning of the work week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ028-030>032-039-040- 521>526. Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ033-034-515>520. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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