Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220813 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 413 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly builds in today and tonight. Another low pressure system this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 AM Thursday... A northwest wind flow will persist today, although moisture in the lower atmosphere will be rather limited. Can`t rule out a few flurries in the mountains today and this evening as -8 C at 850 MB moves over the area. A high pressure system will then briefly move over the area tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 412 AM Thursday... Models continue to indicate that this period will begin dry under the influence of broad troughing across the eastern CONUS with surface high pressure in place. However, a surface low pressure system will develop over the High Plains of Colorado and Wyoming on Friday. This feature will deepen as it moves east into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday afternoon. Precipitation associated with a warm front will push into our southwestern zones early Friday night. The low-levels will be cold enough for this precipitation to begin as snow. However, latest models suggest there will be a warm layer above the surface which could result the snow falling as a mixture of snow, sleet or even a cold rain. The airmass should continue to slowly cool overnight with some locations falling below zero with the rain changing to freezing rain. The precipitation should then spread northeast with wet weather across our entire forecast area by late morning. Expect the low levels will slowly warm during the day and much of the precipitation across the lowlands will change to rain. The precipitation across the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains will likely remain as snow Saturday into Sunday. The low pressure system will push southeast with another area of low pressure expected to develop off the Carolina coast on Sunday. As the low redevelops to our southeast, the precipitation should come to an end from the northwest. The precipitation should change back to snow across the lowlands before the precipitation ends across the entire area on Sunday. Current thinking is that a few inches of snow are possible across the lowland counties south of route 50 with 7 to 9 inches across the higher elevations of Pocahontas, Webster, Nicholas and Fayette Counties. While the higher snowfall amounts do not meet Winter Storm Watch criteria at this time, this area will have to be monitored for possible watches or warnings should future snowfall forecasts be higher.
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As of 412 AM Thursday... High pressure will then take control of our weather from Sunday night into early Tuesday. Another low pressure system will move northeast from the Central Plains into the Great lakes by Wednesday. As a result, chances for precipitation should once again spread into the region on Tuesday with unsettled weather anticipated to continue through Wednesday. Ahead of this system, southwest flow should result in a warming trend with daytime readings in the 60s across our lowland counties as well as the southern mountains by Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday... MVFR clouds on the western slopes of the mountains will give way to VFR conditions this morning. VFR conditions will then continue through the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the transition to VFR could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/22/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR in precipitation with the next system on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.