Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230248 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1048 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving storm system approaches on Monday with rain lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1040 PM Sunday...Based on model forecast soundings and with model guidance indicating a strong SE Wind flow...downslope winds...I decided to bump up wind gusts across our southeastern mountain forecast zones through the day tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph appear likely, and across the higher elevations of Eastern Raleigh, Fayette and Nicholas Counties, a wind advisory may be needed for tomorrow. Will allow the midshift to make that decision when all the 00Z model suite comes in later tonight. As of 620 PM Sunday...Forecast remains on track and no changes needed at this time. As of 243 PM Sunday... Vertically stacked system will roll slowly eastward from the Ozarks today making it only into western Tennessee by Monday evening. This slow movement will keep our area largely dry through tonight. We will have to deal with high clouds, which became thick enough to limit sunshine and temps over the Kanawha Valley this afternoon. Based on recent satellite imagery, however, this appears to be thinning in enough time to allow for a late surge in temps. The high clouds will persist in some form or fashion overnight, but temps will still likely take advantage of the dry low level airmass and fall, possibly as low as the upper 40s in our normally colder valleys. A band of rain will start to work northeastward into the coalfields by around dawn on Monday. This will be heading into a dry low level airmass with downsloping southeast low level flow in place. So, the rain will likely break up some but I still paint likely PoPs for many locations but with light QPF as this band works deeper into the region during the day. The thicker clouds and precip should keep temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most locations. The other factor on Monday will be increasing winds with gusts to 20 mph possible in the valleys but 30 to 40 mph over the higher elevations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Sunday... No significant changes to the short term with the forecast closed low filling pushing into the middle Ohio Valley from the west southwest. The upper low will be filling in nature and will finally kick out Tuesday night. Although unsettled through the short term, rain will likely be light, and off and on in nature before it ends Wednesday night. Overall, expecting 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain during the short term period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM Sunday... Have some discrepancies in the long term solutions for the weekend. Consensus exists on weak and short lived high pressure going into the weekend, and then the next upper level system, however the extent to which that upper low digs in is in question. One model depicts more of a separation of the open wave into a northern and southern component and an overall weaker system, while other close it off while digging towards the 540 mark over the central/southern Appalachians. As it stands, cannot discount ridgetop flurries early Friday night. Getting tougher to get to the -8C 850mb temps as we get later into Spring. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 735 PM Sunday... Possibility for low level wind shear during early morning hours until just after sunrise at CRW and EKN with winds increasing aloft through the overnight hours. This will cause a marginal low- level wind shear risk. Surface winds at BKW should remain strong enough overnight to where shear will not be a problem. Surface winds increase after dawn tomorrow morning and become gusty. VFR conditions expected for much of the forecast period, however, ceilings will lower through the day tomorrow as our next system approaches from the south. Some light rain can be expected for all southern terminals by tomorrow afternoon, but not thinking restrictions will be too bad...maybe high end MVFR ceilings will be possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of possible MVFR ceilings is likely to vary tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/23/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in light to moderate rain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/26 NEAR TERM...ABE/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.