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000
FXUS61 KRLX 211650
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1250 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cool and dry tonight, then slowly warming through Tuesday ahead
of a cold front that brings wet weather back to the area
Tuesday night. Frost is possible Monday morning.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

 * Frost Advisory in place for areas outside of the WV mountains
   late tonight into Monday morning.

At the time of writing, two layers of clouds continue to mask
the Central Appalachians, maintaining a chillier than normal
afternoon. The first area of mid to upper level clouds
blanketing the southern coalfields and up the spine of the
Appalachians will gradually push off into the Mid-Atlantic in
association with a southern stream disturbance. The other area
of persnickety clouds has dropped down from the northwest as a
layer of stratocumulus, which may provide brief stints of
sunshine today, before clearing out altogether later this
evening into the overnight hours.

High pressure currently parked over the Central Plains will nose
into the eastern half of the country throughout the forecast
period, supplying dry weather to round out the weekend and open
up the work week. The surface high will be established overhead
on Monday, and should yield slightly warmer temperatures in
comparison to today`s anticipated highs.

Main item of note within this forecast period will be the
clearing skies overnight that will lead to sufficient
radiational cooling Monday morning. Overnight lows drift down
into the low to mid 30s during the predawn hours, which may
irritate sensitive vegetation. Joined neighboring offices with
a Frost Advisory for all counties currently within the growing
season for late tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures
quickly rise after daybreak and should reach the upper 50s to
low 60s across the lowlands and into the 40s for the higher
terrain by the peak of the afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Quiet conditions continue into the early work week as high pressure
slides east across the region Monday into Monday night

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday night putting the region
back into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching
northern stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes
Tuesday night. This should yield a brief return to mild conditions
with daytime highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The atmosphere will be quite dry Monday into Tuesday with
dew point values in the lower to mid 30s before moisture begins to
work in on increasing southwesterly flow Tuesday night. Winds will
be relatively light on Monday, but will increase on Tuesday with
afternoon gusts 20-25 mph with RH values in the mid 20s. 10 hour
dead fuels have already dried significantly from recent rainfall,
although with the green up in full swing being able to get fire into
these thicker fuels may take some doing. Will need to check in with
land management agencies early in the week to get their opinion
on fuels for some possible fire danger statements for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

As alluded to in the short term discussion, a modest uptick in
precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch is expected late
Tuesday. A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will
drag across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding
around a third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin.
Instability looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing
will continue to cap any chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend amid another strong warm
up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Sunday...

Broken mid-layer cloud deck associated with a southern stream
disturbance continues to track eastward this afternoon in the
midst of a scattered cu deck dropping down from the northwest.
Ceilings remain VFR as clouds continue to journey through the
region, and should clear out altogether late this evening into
the overnight hours. Monday is progged to be mostly clear under
the establishment of surface high pressure.

Winds begin the period light and variable out of the north,
becoming more westerly on Monday with the surface high sliding
overhead. A few gusts up between 15-20 kts may be noticed this
afternoon at our airfields.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ003-004.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK