-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241214
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
814 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating rain exits southeast this morning, a few additional
showers this afternoon. Dry and warming for the rest of the
work week. Chance for showers arrive late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 815 AM Wednesday...

Forecast appears to be largely on track, so no major changes
were needed with the morning update.


As of 610 AM Wednesday...

Made some minor tweaks to temperatures to better reflect current
observations, otherwise the forecast was on track for
accumulating rain to exit southeast this morning.

As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Light rain continues to work across the region this morning along
and ahead of a surface cold front. Wide dew point depressions ahead
of this line have yielded some initial gustiness 20-35 mph before
the surface layer works toward saturation. Accumulating rainfall is
expected to exit to the southeast near or shortly after daybreak
this morning. Cooler air advects in behind the front on north-
northwesterly flow keeping daytime highs generally in the upper 50s
to upper 60s, coolest north. Cooler air aloft will set up some
decent low low level lapse rates, and at least some upstream
moisture connection the Great Lakes will exist. This could yield
some additional low topped showery activity through late this
afternoon, mainly near the mountains.

Overnight tonight, light northerly flow and at least some initial
presence of clouds will help to limit frost formation. Could see
temperatures nudging down toward freezing across some of our Ohio
counties, but probabilities of below 32 degrees have dipped some
over the last forecast cycle. May eventually need a frost or
possibly even freeze warning for some of these locations, but
forecast confidence is not there to expand on our neighboring
watches for now. Based on initial collaboration it also seems as
though those neighboring watches will remain watches for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

* Patchy Frost possible Thursday morning mainly north.
* Dry conditions Thursday and Thursday night.
* Next system arrives Friday and Friday night
* Warming trend Friday through the weekend.

Surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, extends south
into the SE US, providing clear skies, and a relaxed pressure
gradient over the region Thursday and Thursday night.

Precipitation returns Friday and Friday night as a warm front forms
south of the area under developing southwest flow. This flow will
bring moisture and warm advection, while the area remains under the
warm sector of an approaching cold front. An upper level shortwave
may provide upper level forcing to support precipitation on Friday.
Best moisture and low level convergence arrive Friday afternoon and
evening with PWATs reaching 1.4 inches.

A gradual warming trend is expected Thursday through Friday under
WAA. Highs will reach the upper 60s across the lowlands on
Thursday, and the mid to upper 70s Friday afternoon. Near
normal lows Thursday night will generally be in the 40s, except
mid 30s higher elevations and portions of northern southeast OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 226 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

* Next system arrives late Friday into the weekend.
* Becoming hot during the weekend possibly reaching the lower to
  mid 80s.

Additional upper level shortwaves will ride above the warm
front as it lifts north, keeping chances of precipitation on
Saturday. Kept thunderstorms out of forecast for Saturday per
lack of instability expected. A warming trend continues,
becoming hot over the weekend, with lowland temperatures
reaching the 80s on Saturday, and the mid 80s on Sunday.

An upper level ridge then moves over the region Sunday,
providing dry conditions areawide. However, the area remains
under a warm sector of a low pressure system moving into the
Great Lakes on Monday. Therefore, the atmosphere remains
unsettled for at least showers during the first half of next
week, with temperatures in the warm side, and a cold front
arriving to our west Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

Initial cold front exits southeast this morning taking
accumulating rainfall with it. Cool air advection in the wake
of the cold front will yield a period of MVFR ceilings at the
onset of the TAF period, improving to VFR through late morning
or early afternoon. A few additional instability showers will
be possible this afternoon, mainly near CKB or EKN but
confidence too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Patchy fog may develop overnight, mainly in the mountain
valleys, contingent on how quickly clouds clear this evening.

Winds shift more northwesterly through late morning and
eventually northerly by this evening 8-12KTs with gusts up to
20KTs through the late afternoon. Winds become light and
northerly overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers could affect EKN or CKB this
afternoon. Fog may develop in the mountain valleys toward
daybreak Thursday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...FK/JP
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP