Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270810 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 410 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper trough remains in vicinity with showers and storms today. Dry with high pressure for Memorial Day. Unsettled weather returns mid week, as remnants from Subtropical Storm Alberto push northward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM Sunday... Upper trough remains in our vicinity today, with showers and storms likely once again. However, the axis is sliding eastward and best convergence will be across our Eastern Mountains, where highest PoPs are forecast. Once again, with the scattered convection there will be a chance for some localized flash flooding. Have highlighted these areas in the HWO. Drier air eventually will push in from the NW this evening and storms should end from west to east later tonight, with possibly a few showers hanging on in the mountains through 00Z Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 404 AM Sunday... Inverted 5H trough with some vorticity max continues to enhance afternoon convection Monday and Monday evening. This vort max remains stationary over southern portions of the area keeping the pcpn across the southern coal fields and central and southern mountains Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the boundary lifts north as a warm front Tuesday night. Light boundary layer winds indicate possible dense fog development. The atmosphere remains unsettled as several short waves visit the area Tuesday night. Went with blend of models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 404 AM Sunday... Still uncertain on the exact trajectory of Alberto once it make land fall. Current trajectory brings the center of Alberto into the OH Valley by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Uncertainty exists where the heaviest pcpn will be attm once the center move into OH. The GFS suggests best convection to occur in the southeast quadrant of Alberto`s center. Went with the blend of all models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 150 AM Sunday... Still some showers and thunderstorms crossing the Northern Forecast area early this morning. These could affect PKB/CKB/EKN...however, CKB looks most likely to be hit directly at the start of the forecast period. With the wet conditions from rainfall yesterday, fog will be an issue at some terminals through the morning hours, but any fog should dissipate by 14Z. The upper level trough that produced the numerous showers and thunderstorms yesterday, is likely to do so again on today. However, as the system pushes east, drier air will move into the middle Ohio Valley by late afternoon, lowering the coverage of showers and thunderstorms there. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog is likely to be highly variable this morning. TAFs may need amended for showers/thunderstorms and associated flight category changes, as they develop again on today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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