Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 250705 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 305 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure brings very dry conditions today, likely inducing fire weather concerns. The next system brings a wetting rain for the middle of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 305 AM Monday... Key Points: * Very and breezy conditions today will lead to increased fire weather concerns across the area. * Strong winds aloft tonight could lead to low level wind shear whenever and wherever sufficiently high gusts do not mix to the surface. The forecast area resides in a very dry, strong low level southeast flow between surface ridging along the east coast, and a large, strong southern stream low pressure system out to the west, today and tonight. Dew points in the lower 20s lowlands and teens in and near the mountains this afternoon, will combine with high temperatures around 70 over the lowlands, 50s and 60s mountains, given sunshine limited only by high thin cloud, to produce minimum RH values mostly in the teens over the lowlands, teens and 20s mountains. Peak wind gusts across the lowlands will reach 15 to 20 mph this morning and 20 to 25 mph by late afternoon. Peak wind gusts across the central mountains of WV will be 30 to as high as 40 mph this morning, before settling down to the 25 to 30 mph range this afternoon. With fuels drying out since the rain Friday night into Saturday, elevated fire weather concerns will exist across the area today, especially this afternoon and even into this evening. Even if most of the area likely falls short of Red Flag Warning criteria on winds, at least a Fire Danger Statement seems likely for much of the area today. Will continue to coordinate with neighbors and forestry partners early this morning. See fire weather section below for more details. Peak wind gusts tonight reach 25 to 30 mph across much of the lowlands, but 45 to 50 mph across and just downstream, or northwest, of the mountains, especially the central mountains, would would warrant a wind advisory. Guidance continues to evince little mixing across the north central lowlands of WV, except perhaps for a time late this afternoon. Winds as high as 65 to 70 mph at h925 amid a stout inversion tonight could induce low level wind shear even with some gusts mixing through to the surface. Increasing wind and only slowly increasing dew points will make for a slow RH recovery tonight. The large, strong low pressure system comes out of the central high plains this morning and tracks northeastward into the upper midwest tonight. Its associated cold front reaches into the lower Ohio Valley toward dawn Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of the system, and increasing differential vorticity advection ahead of the mid-upper level short wave trough, are likely to result in showers encroaching upon the middle Ohio Valley from the west toward dawn Friday. Moisture limited to the h7-h6 layer before dawn Tuesday will preclude a heavy rain or thunder threat. To be sure, moisture and lift may become just sufficient to produce precipitation that could make it through the dry low levels to the surface as far east as the Ohio River by dawn Tuesday. The strong southeast flow will keep temperatures above normal tonight, with decoupling limited to the deeper, better sheltered valleys, along with a portion of the north central lowlands of WV.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Surface low pressure and upper shortwave lift northeast into the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a second shortwave that will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday, ending up largely east of the CWA by Wednesday evening. Models have backed off on rainfall amounts with this system in latest runs, and although rainfall potential exists area wide, it may be somewhat spotty in nature. The NAM in particular would suggest even less potential for a wetting rain across the lowlands. Higher qpf looks to exist across the higher terrain, where moisture may linger in vicinity of the slow moving front on Wednesday. There still exists the potential for a rumble of thunder during the period, but should overall be generally isolated in nature. In addition, gusty southeasterly winds are possible particularly Monday evening/night across the mountainous counties. At this time, kept area largely beneath advisory levels due to low confidence, but will need to be monitored. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1152 AM Sunday... Frontal boundary associated with the system should be just east of the mountains by late Wednesday night or early Thursday, with upper trough pushing east through the area amd eventually kicking the front further east. Mainly dry conditions are expected across the area in the extended, however, occasional weak waves in the flow may generate light precipitation at times. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 305 AM Monday... VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period, courtesy of high pressure, while mid to high level clouds pass overhead. The forecast area resides in a very dry, strong low level southeast flow between the surface ridging along the east coast, and a large, strong southern stream low pressure system out to the west, today and tonight. Peak surface wind gusts across the lowlands will reach around 15 kts this morning, around 20 kts by late afternoon, and then up to around 25 kts tonight. Peak wind gusts across the central mountains of WV will be 35 kts this morning, before settling down to around 25 kts range this afternoon, but then increasing to around 40 kts at least across and just downstream, or northwest, of the central mountains of WV tonight. BKW will have the strongest winds, while CKB will have the lightest flow, as guidance continues to evince little mixing across the north central lowlands of WV, except perhaps for a time late this afternoon. Winds as high as 60 kts at h925, or about 3 kft agl, amid a stout inversion tonight could induce low level wind shear even with some gusts mixing through to the surface. Aviation interests should be keenly aware of these very strong low level winds tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate, which could allow for LLWS to develop during lulls. If LLWS develops, extent and duration could vary from current TAFs. LLWS tonight could develop even with some gusts mixing to the surface. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/25/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions may occur in any areas of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 305 AM Monday... RH recovery was poor across portions of the middle Ohio Valley and the western slopes of the high terrain early this morning. That sets the stage for very low RH values later today. With afternoon temperatures expected to reach around 70 degrees across much of the lower elevations, and a large layer of very dry air not too far aloft, significantly low RH values are expected across the area this afternoon. Most of the area will likely see at least a few hours of Minimum RH values into the 15-20 percent range. Wind gusts across the lowlands will reach 15 to 20 mph this morning and 20 to 25 mph by late afternoon. Peak wind gusts across the central mountains of WV will be 30 to as high as 40 mph this morning, before settling down to the 25 to 30 mph range this afternoon. Fortunately, the area with the stronger winds is generally also an area that got more precipitation with the Friday night into Saturday system, which may help minimally. However, what fuel moisture readings available there were 8 to 9 percent, as they were across the middle Ohio Valley, where less rain was noted. While winds may not be quite as strong across the middle Ohio Valley, at a minimum an area-wide fire danger statement may be needed today, and we will coordinate with neighbors and our forestry partners on any potential Fire Fire Danger Statements or even Red Flag Warnings that they feel may be needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/SL/JLB NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM FIRE WEATHER...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.