Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250705
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
305 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings very dry conditions today, likely inducing fire
weather concerns. The next system brings a wetting rain for the
middle of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 305 AM Monday...
Key Points:
* Very and breezy conditions today will lead to increased fire
weather concerns across the area.
* Strong winds aloft tonight could lead to low level wind shear
whenever and wherever sufficiently high gusts do not mix to
the surface.
The forecast area resides in a very dry, strong low level
southeast flow between surface ridging along the east coast, and
a large, strong southern stream low pressure system out to the
west, today and tonight.
Dew points in the lower 20s lowlands and teens in and near the
mountains this afternoon, will combine with high temperatures
around 70 over the lowlands, 50s and 60s mountains, given
sunshine limited only by high thin cloud, to produce minimum RH
values mostly in the teens over the lowlands, teens and 20s
mountains.
Peak wind gusts across the lowlands will reach 15 to 20 mph this
morning and 20 to 25 mph by late afternoon. Peak wind gusts
across the central mountains of WV will be 30 to as high as 40
mph this morning, before settling down to the 25 to 30 mph range
this afternoon.
With fuels drying out since the rain Friday night into
Saturday, elevated fire weather concerns will exist across the
area today, especially this afternoon and even into this
evening. Even if most of the area likely falls short
of Red Flag Warning criteria on winds, at least a Fire Danger
Statement seems likely for much of the area today. Will
continue to coordinate with neighbors and forestry partners
early this morning. See fire weather section below for more
details.
Peak wind gusts tonight reach 25 to 30 mph across much of the
lowlands, but 45 to 50 mph across and just downstream, or
northwest, of the mountains, especially the central mountains,
would would warrant a wind advisory. Guidance continues to
evince little mixing across the north central lowlands of WV,
except perhaps for a time late this afternoon.
Winds as high as 65 to 70 mph at h925 amid a stout inversion tonight
could induce low level wind shear even with some gusts mixing
through to the surface.
Increasing wind and only slowly increasing dew points will make
for a slow RH recovery tonight.
The large, strong low pressure system comes out of the central
high plains this morning and tracks northeastward into the upper
midwest tonight. Its associated cold front reaches into the
lower Ohio Valley toward dawn Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of
the system, and increasing differential vorticity advection
ahead of the mid-upper level short wave trough, are likely to
result in showers encroaching upon the middle Ohio Valley from
the west toward dawn Friday.
Moisture limited to the h7-h6 layer before dawn Tuesday will
preclude a heavy rain or thunder threat. To be sure, moisture
and lift may become just sufficient to produce precipitation
that could make it through the dry low levels to the surface as
far east as the Ohio River by dawn Tuesday.
The strong southeast flow will keep temperatures above normal
tonight, with decoupling limited to the deeper, better sheltered
valleys, along with a portion of the north central lowlands of
WV.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...
Surface low pressure and upper shortwave lift northeast into the
Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a second
shortwave that will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, ending up largely east of the CWA by Wednesday
evening. Models have backed off on rainfall amounts with this system
in latest runs, and although rainfall potential exists area wide, it
may be somewhat spotty in nature. The NAM in particular would
suggest even less potential for a wetting rain across the lowlands.
Higher qpf looks to exist across the higher terrain, where moisture
may linger in vicinity of the slow moving front on Wednesday. There
still exists the potential for a rumble of thunder during the
period, but should overall be generally isolated in nature.
In addition, gusty southeasterly winds are possible particularly
Monday evening/night across the mountainous counties. At this
time, kept area largely beneath advisory levels due to low
confidence, but will need to be monitored.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1152 AM Sunday...
Frontal boundary associated with the system should be just east of
the mountains by late Wednesday night or early Thursday, with upper
trough pushing east through the area amd eventually kicking the
front further east. Mainly dry conditions are expected across the
area in the extended, however, occasional weak waves in the flow may
generate light precipitation at times.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 305 AM Monday...
VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period, courtesy of
high pressure, while mid to high level clouds pass overhead.
The forecast area resides in a very dry, strong low level
southeast flow between the surface ridging along the east
coast, and a large, strong southern stream low pressure system
out to the west, today and tonight.
Peak surface wind gusts across the lowlands will reach around 15
kts this morning, around 20 kts by late afternoon, and then up
to around 25 kts tonight. Peak wind gusts across the central
mountains of WV will be 35 kts this morning, before settling
down to around 25 kts range this afternoon, but then increasing
to around 40 kts at least across and just downstream, or
northwest, of the central mountains of WV tonight.
BKW will have the strongest winds, while CKB will have the
lightest flow, as guidance continues to evince little mixing
across the north central lowlands of WV, except perhaps for a
time late this afternoon.
Winds as high as 60 kts at h925, or about 3 kft agl, amid a
stout inversion tonight could induce low level wind shear even
with some gusts mixing through to the surface. Aviation
interests should be keenly aware of these very strong low level
winds tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate, which could
allow for LLWS to develop during lulls. If LLWS develops, extent
and duration could vary from current TAFs. LLWS tonight could
develop even with some gusts mixing to the surface.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/25/24
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions may occur in any areas of rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 305 AM Monday...
RH recovery was poor across portions of the middle Ohio Valley
and the western slopes of the high terrain early this morning.
That sets the stage for very low RH values later today. With
afternoon temperatures expected to reach around 70 degrees
across much of the lower elevations, and a large layer of very
dry air not too far aloft, significantly low RH values are
expected across the area this afternoon.
Most of the area will likely see at least a few hours of
Minimum RH values into the 15-20 percent range. Wind gusts
across the lowlands will reach 15 to 20 mph this morning and 20
to 25 mph by late afternoon. Peak wind gusts across the central
mountains of WV will be 30 to as high as 40 mph this morning,
before settling down to the 25 to 30 mph range this afternoon.
Fortunately, the area with the stronger winds is generally also
an area that got more precipitation with the Friday night into
Saturday system, which may help minimally. However, what fuel
moisture readings available there were 8 to 9 percent, as they
were across the middle Ohio Valley, where less rain was noted.
While winds may not be quite as strong across the middle Ohio
Valley, at a minimum an area-wide fire danger statement may be
needed today, and we will coordinate with neighbors and our
forestry partners on any potential Fire Fire Danger Statements
or even Red Flag Warnings that they feel may be needed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/SL/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
FIRE WEATHER...TRM