Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200456 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1256 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1250 AM Friday... A high pressure system will control the weather for today and tonight. With some dry air mixing expected during the afternoon hours, went on the lower side of dewpoints. Some cirrus arrives late Friday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Thursday... The region becomes encompassed by surface high pressure this weekend, helping temperatures to rebound closer to seasonable levels for this time of year. Clear skies will trigger efficient radiational cooling overnight Friday, which may pose a need for frost advisories across the lowlands Saturday morning. As of the latest forecast, Sunday morning will feature slightly warmer temperatures that would keep the need for an advisory at bay. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday... High pressure migrates northeastward in response to an upper level disturbance making its way into the region from the central Plains. Next shot at seeing more of an active weather pattern returns Monday night into Tuesday as the low meanders over the lower Ohio Valley and becomes ingested by a stronger system moving down from Canada, which will ultimately push the next cold front through the area around midweek. Chose to go with a model blend for the end of the period due to discrepancies with models that far out. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1250 AM Friday... VFR expected through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a small chance of MVFR clouds in the northern mountains early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/20/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>031. OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...RPY

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