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920
FXUS61 KRLX 301728
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through today. High pressure brings dry
weather with a warming trend Wednesday into Friday. Shower
chances increase for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will continue to push eastward across the area this
afternoon, providing some showers and possible a few thunderstorms.
As the front moves off to the east this evening, the precipitation
will come to an end. With winds becoming light and the recent
rainfall, expect widespread dense fog to form tonight. Models
are showing another front on Wednesday, but moisture does not
look sufficient for any precipitation.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

A weak cold front stalls north of the region Wednesday night
amidst high zonal flow aloft yielding little in the way of
sensible weather concerns. This high zonal pattern gives way to
a building longwave ridge Thursday yielding continuing dry and
increasingly hot conditions for Thursday and most of the day
Friday.

50th percentile guidance is rather high for daytime highs both
days. Deterministic central guidance reflects highs several
degrees lower. Even these might be a little high given the
flush state of Spring vegetation across most of the area,
especially on Friday when at least some Gulf influence moisture
should start returning to the area prior to maximum heating.
This is likely a result of the 30 day bias period looking back
before we were properly greened up. Temperature records are
most likely secure with most reflecting values higher than even
the rather aggressive 75th percentile guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting
shifting east Friday along with surface low pressure transiting
the Upper Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values
edge up toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front
associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night.
Upper level support for this feature largely stays well to the
north allowing the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday.
This will also keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding
relatively slow storm motions. Could potentially have some very
isolated water issues with multiple slow moving storms moving
over the same location, but given the state of vegetation and
recent dry conditions, concerns are relatively low.

The weak flow pattern persists through the weekend featuring mainly
diurnally driven convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will continue to push eastward across the area
this afternoon, providing restrictions in some showers and
possible a few thunderstorms. As the front moves off to the east
this evening, the precipitation will come to an end. With winds
becoming light and the recent rainfall, expect widespread dense
fog to form tonight. After the fog burns off Wednesday morning,
expect VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shower and thunderstorm timing and location
could vary. Timing of dense fog tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to fog Thursday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY