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959
FXUS61 KRLX 291751
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
151 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly
dry with hot, summerlike temperatures this afternoon. A cold
front approaches from the west Tuesday morning.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Monday...

Dry conditions will continue for the most part tonight as a surface
high pressure slides east of the Appalachians. This will allow a
cold front to approach from the northwest early Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the frontal passage and the
aid of diurnal heating, available moisture and some deep layered
shear. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at this
time.

However, tall skinny soundings with PWATs about 1.5 inches (2
standard deviation from climatology) suggests heavy downpours
will be possible on Tuesday. WPC has painted the entire area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday.

The front briefly stalls across our north Tuesday evening,
before lifting north as a warm front.

Lows tonight will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, except mid
50s over the northeast mountains. Abundant cloudiness, increasing
winds, and cooling showers will keep afternoon temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

A southern stream short wave trough pushes a weakening surface
cold front across the area Tuesday. This brings clouds, showers
and a few thunderstorms into the area from west to east during
the morning and midday hours. This limits the opportunity for
heating to eastern portions of the area, but CAPE up to a KJ/kg
could still be realized in the moist air mass, in which PW
values climb as high as 1.4 in.

Modest deep layer flow/bulk shear coupled with midday and
afternoon instability could support strong, heavy
thunderstorms, but severe weather is not anticipated.

The southwest flow through a deep layer roughly parallel to the
front could support training of thunderstorms, which could lead
to locally heavy rainfall amounts. The flow also diminishes
late in the day, slowing storm motion for a narrow window of
opportunity for slower storm motion contributing to locally
heavy rainfall as well, before the cold front crosses and the
column starts to dry from west to east.

Dead low level flow in the wake of the weak system is likely to
lead to areas of fog and stratus overnight into Wednesday
morning, but the moist layer should be shallow enough to mix
through during the day.

High pressure Wednesday gives way to a return south to southwest
flow Thursday, continuing the dry weather. Areas of fog and
especially stratus will be less Wednesday night and even less
if any Thursday night, with the intervening days of drying and
the return low level flow, albeit light.

Central guidance reflects lowland temperatures in the 70s much
of if not all of the day Tuesday, with highs earliest west.
Temperatures top out in the lower 80s across the lowlands
Wednesday, before returning to the mid to upper 80s on Thursday,
Lows will be in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday nights, before
returning to around 60s across th lowlands Thursday night.
Overall, above normal temperatures prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1158 PM Monday...

High pressure, surface and aloft will provide hot, but mainly dry
conditions across the area on Thursday. By Friday, showers and
storms will be on the increase out ahead of an approaching front as
surface low lifts north into Canada. This front will be slowly move
into the area through Saturday, with a southern stream shortwave
moving through the area over the weekend, providing additional
rounds of showers and storms. This should also provide cooler
conditions over the weekend, as compared to the hot and humid
conditions expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 142 PM Monday...

Widespread VFR conditions prevailing through tonight as a high
pressure moves east of the area. A cold front approaches from
the northwest early Tuesday morning, with showers arriving to
the Mid OH valley by 12-13Z. Precipitation will start falling
from an upper deck keeping VFR conditions. MVFR ceilings will
develop along and west of the OH River by 16-18Z Tuesday
afternoon as the cold front moves through. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms may also develop during the afternoon and
evening, during the peak of instability. Uncertain whether
MVFR/IFR conditions will spread east to affect other terminals
at this time.

Winds may gust between 13-16kts at times this afternoon due to
mixing ,but this will mostly be observed at the western sites of
HTS, PKB and any smaller terminals across SE Ohio. Winds become
near calm by 23Z or so.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR conditions at western
terminals may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. IFR conditions possible due to dense fog
Wednesday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ