Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 172006 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 406 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass. A cold front may finally bring a reprieve toward mid next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday... Overall, no significant changes were made to the near term forecast. Convection is starting to fire this afternoon, particularly in a couple of locations. One area of interest is across southeast Ohio, where a boundary is evident on satellite. Increased pops across these zones for this afternoon. Other area where convection is quickly increasing is across the higher terrain, with moist upslope flow, and numerous embedded disturbances continue to rotate through the area. Models indicating less activity across parts of WV lowlands, but continued to maintain a high chance, as breaks in cloud cover may allow for more development than models indicate. Overall flow still relatively light, but not as light as on Wednesday, but storms will still be relatively slow to move. Will allow the flood watch to continue as is. Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday, as upper low/trough continues to linger across the Mississippi Valley region. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 405 PM Thursday... Warm conveyor belt out ahead of negatively tilted southern stream short wave trough shifts east of the area Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms over eastern portions of the area, particularly where then flood watch is, push northeast of the area Friday night and the flood watch expiration time of 00Z still looks good. The short wave trough itself pushes through on Saturday. This will provide some forcing, along with wind shear, for strong thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, SPC depicts this with a north-south marginal severe risk axis through the middle and upper Ohio Valley. This system pushes pushes out quickly Saturday night, but pushes a surface cold front southward toward the area. This keeps the chance for showers and thunderstorms going overnight, especially north. The front lifts north on Sunday and Sunday night, leaving the area in the very warm and humid air, and primarily diurnally driven convection given weak upper level ridging. Temperatures reflect warmer afternoons per increasing sunshine, compared with the past couple of days, with nights remaining warm.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 405 PM Thursday... Upper level ridge pushes east of the area Monday, allowing weak ripples in the upper level flow to traverse the area. This gradually switches front zonal to northwest, especially as one last, somewhat stronger short wave trough crosses Tuesday night. The chance for showers and thunderstorms in the very warm and humid air continues Monday through Tuesday, diurnally highest in the afternoon and evening. A surface cold front crosses Tuesday night, driven by the last short wave and the upper level northwest flow. This brings drying Tuesday night, and a midweek reprieve in the wet weather. Temperatures remain above normal next week, even after the cold front passes, but with slightly cooler nights and lower dew points during the midweek reprieve.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage again this afternoon. Bulk of activity is expected to be across the higher terrain, and across parts of southeast Ohio. Expect brief MVFR and IFR conditions in showers/thunderstorms. Expect ceilings and visibilities to drop again tonight to widespread MVFR/IFR, especially if the convective/mid high level clouds clear out, with gradual improvement expected after 14Z. However, showers and thunderstorms will ramp up in coverage again towards the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary thru the whole period. Timing, location, and density of fog/ceilings tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ028-030>034-039-040- 515>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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