Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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099 FXUS61 KRLX 210450 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1250 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1245 AM Saturday... A high pressure system will control the weather for today and tonight. However, the right rear of an upper level jet will provide some high clouds. Looking at soundings, expect that dry air will mix to the ground during the afternoon hours. Therefore, went on the lower side of dewpoints.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Upper-level ridge builds over area early in the period and remains in place into Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will push east across the lower Mississippi River valley into the southeastern states. Dry weather Saturday night into Sunday will give way to precipitation chances increasing from the southwest late Sunday night into Monday. Temperature guidance looks good and was generally followed. Readings should be near normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Upper level systems and a cold front pushing east will result in unsettled weather through the period. As a result, expect daytime temperatures will be below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Saturday... VFR expected through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/21/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible Monday and Monday night under moderate rainfall.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ006>011- 013>020-024>031-033-034. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005. OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>086. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ087. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ004. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...RPY

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