Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190718 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 318 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure with increasing clouds today. Another system arrives Monday night through mid week with periods of rain and snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM Monday... Dry for much of the day today, although clouds will be on the increase ahead of approaching shortwave and surface low. Most precipitation will hold off until later this evening, but a slight chance cannot be completely ruled out later this afternoon across the higher terrain, as southeasterly flow increases across the area. With the southeasterly flow, temperatures will warm nicely, particularly across the WV lowlands, where high temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s will be common. Low pressure, and associated precipitation move into the region this evening, with mostly rain forming across the area. There is the possibility of a wintry mix across the northern mountains late tonight and early Tuesday, mainly in the form of sleet/snow/rain. For now, in coordination with other offices, have elected to hold off on any headlines across that area for tonight based on lack of significant accumulations/possible timing issues, and will have the day shift reevaluate, and highlight the wintry precip in the HWO. Dry slot takes hold across the area towards dawn, as the system moves east through the region, but precipitation coverage will increase again towards the end of the near term period into the short period. Still could see a rumble of thunder across the far south later today, but chances are low, with better instability south of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Sunday... Low pressure approaches from the southwest on Monday night. Models differ a bit in the overall details with this system as far as thermal profiles go. Across the Lowlands and Southern Mountains any precip should fall as rain, but in the Northern Mountains things are a bit more complicated. Current thinking is that the mountains will start out as rain, but a transition to a wintry mix or possibly snow will occur during the early morning hours on Tuesday. Have kept snowfall totals very conservative in the mountains for now, as a wintry mix with rain/sleet is forecast. Still have 1 to 2 inches of snow or sleet across higher elevations in Eastern Randolph and Pocahontas County. Low pressure moves off the East Coast and strengthens on Tuesday. Much colder air will work in behind this system as upper trough digs over Eastern U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday and all precip looks to turn over to snow with some accumulations possible. However, considerable differences still exists between the models and confidence is very low on snowfall totals across the region at this time, but snow is looking more and more likely area-wide Wednesday through Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 335 PM Sunday... Ensembles and operational guidance have axis of upper trough shifting to the east on Thursday, but ridging holds off from building into our area until Friday. At least it is looking like a dry end to the week, but expect temperatures to still be below normal on Thursday and possibly Friday as well depending on how quickly the ridge builds. Another system will be possible next weekend, but of course with this coming in day 6 and 7, much is likely to change as we head through the week. Went with a blend of operational and ensemble guidance for days 5 - 7 and this does bring in some Chance PoP next weekend, but due to timing differences between the guidance, this system will probably be more progressive than what the blend of guidance is giving. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 AM Monday... VFR conditions with light surface winds through 00Z, although areas of MVFR cigs may develop across the mountains, including at site KBKW particularly after 20Z on southeasterly flow. Otherwise, precipitation will move back into the area particularly after 00Z, with most areas receiving rain, although parts of the northern mountains of WV may see a wintry mix. More widespread MVFR likely after 03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/19/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in precipitation Tuesday through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.