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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240223
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1023 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings light rain showers tonight into early
Wednesday. Dry and warming for the rest of the work week. Chance
for weekend showers and perhaps afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1020 PM Tuesday...

The initial showers out ahead of the cold front to the west were
producing strong wind gusts, close to 50 mph, as they moved into
the very dry air. With loss of heating easing the steep low
level lapse rates, expect the threat to gradually diminish as
this leading edge moves across the warning area. Nonetheless,
have carried special weather statements across northern portions
of the area. PKB ASOS had a gust to 48 kts and gusts at times
over 40 kts for nearly an hour. There was also multiple reports
of wires down in Wood County.

As of 825 PM Tuesday...

Forecast on track, with showers ahead of a cold front bringing
wet bulb cooling, and a wind shift, into the middle Ohio Valley.

As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Dry conditions will continue before a cold front swings through
overnight bringing generally light rain to the region. Total
rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side, generally a tenth
or two with some locally higher amounts in orographic forcing.

Breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon and into early
evening can be expected ahead the mentioned front, however,
most locations should see a relatively brief period of lighter
winds this evening with decoupling prior to FROPA

Afternoon min RH values in the lower 20s, low 10hr fuel
moisture values, and gusts up to 25mph has prompted the issuance
of a fire danger statement for today after coordination with
land management agencies.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Cold front exits east Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return behind the front later on Wednesday.
* Frost possible Thursday morning.

A cold front will push east of the eastern mountains early
Wednesday. However, another upper level shortwave pushes a
reinforcement front, bringing much colder and drier airmass to
the area. This later feature will put an end to the lingering
showers over the mountains by Wednesday evening.

Despite of dry air moving in, moisture remains trapped beneath
the inversion, anticipating afternoon cu development about
4-5kft persisting through Wednesday afternoon. Then, skies will
gradually clear up Wednesday evening.

Highs remain sightly below normal for Wednesday afternoon, generally
in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher
elevations. With cold and dry air in place, low temperatures
Wednesday night may drop into the lower 30s across northern mid Ohio
valley and northern WV.

The combination of chilly temperatures and clearing skies, will
allow for areas of frost to develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Dry with warming trend Thursday and Friday
* Next system arrives late Friday into the weekend.
* Becoming hot during the weekend possibly reaching the lower 80s.

Strong surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, extending
south into the OH valley and WV Thursday. This high will provide dry
weather conditions with a warming trend through the end of the week.

Precipitation returns Friday and Friday night as a warm front
develops across the south, establishing southwest flow and moisture
advection. Showers continues Saturday as the warm front lifts north
across the area. While the area remains on the warm sector, moisture
and instability builds mainly west of the area, while a series of
shortwaves cross aloft. These two features will act to support the
potential for thunderstorms on Saturday.

A warming trend continues, becoming hot over the weekend, with
lowland temperatures reaching the 80s on Saturday, and the mid 80s
on Sunday.

Still uncertain how the weather will evolve after the weekend with
as upper level ridge axis exiting east of the area, while upper level
disturbances approach from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 825 PM Tuesday...

Showers along and ahead of an approaching cold front will
eventually bring an end to the recent stretch of VFR condition,
mainly on ceilings overnight tonight. With the air mass still
very dry, rain showers ahead of the cold front tonight are not
likely to cause much ceiling or visibility restriction,
although ceilings will lower to about 5-6 kft.

Ceilings will drop into MVFR overnight tonight, and the cold
front will cross the area around dawn Wednesday, bringing an
end to the rain showers. MVFR stratocumulus will persist through
much of the morning Wednesday, even briefly IFR at least at
EKN, before lifting in the afternoon, and scattering at least
across the southern site, HTS, CRW and BKW, Wednesday afternoon.

Southwest surface flow ahead of the cold front, gusty at times
tonight, will shift to west to southwest behind the cold front
first thing Wednesday morning, and then west to northwest behind
a second, dry cold front Wednesday afternoon. Moderate southwest
flow aloft ahead of the cold front aloft tonight will become
moderate west Wednesday morning, and then light west to
northwest Wednesday afternoon, with the corresponding frontal
passage aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. There could be
more IFR ceilings than forecast Wednesday morning, especially in
and near the mountains, versus the middle Ohio Valley.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP/MEK
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MEK
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM