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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 131751
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
151 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Flooding becomes increasingly confined to the Ohio and
backwaters today. Breezy/dry today with dry weather continuing
through Sunday morning. A weak cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

High pressure in control across the area, with dry air in place.
This has allowed for a quick warm up in temperatures across the area
today. Tonight, expect rather mild conditions, with slightly warmer
temperatures on ridge tops where higher winds will exist, but winds
should increase area wide towards morning. On Sunday, there could be
a brief shower or just some sprinkles early in the day as a warm
front pushes east, along with increasing gusty winds as the day
progresses and pressure gradient tightens across the area.
Otherwise, later Sunday, a weak cold front will push south towards
the CWA late in the period, ending up in northern SE Ohio zones
towards the end or after the end of the near term period. Showers
and storms are possible as it does so, but overall, looks to be
rather isolated in nature for the near term period. There is a
marginal risk for severe across northern zones, and greatest threat
area looks to be mostly confined to SE Ohio zones where better
instability/more favorable timing will exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

Dry weather can be expected Sunday morning. Above normal
temperatures Sunday afternoon will aid in developing showers
and thunderstorms later Sunday in advance of a weak cold front.
This front will push into the region Sunday night, before
stalling over southern portions of the area and becoming
moisture starved on Monday. Even so, there is a small chance of
showers and thunderstorms along and south of the front over
southern West Virginia, Kentucky, and southwest Virginia. North
of the front, slightly cooler temperatures can be expect across
southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia on Monday as compared
to Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

A stalled front returns northward as a warm front on Tuesday,
providing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This is not
an exceptionally moist warm front for spring, with PW values of
around an inch actually supported by saturation near and above
h7. Very narrow elevated CAPE and modest shear can support
showers and even thunderstorms, but precipitation will be
light, and even any thunderstorm should not be particularly
strong no heavy.

Tuesday night will find the area in the warm sector of a low
pressure system crossing the midwest. While an initial band of
showers and thunderstorms may arrive toward dawn, showers and
thunderstorms are more likely Wednesday afternoon and evening,
as the low crosses the Great Lakes and drags its cold front into
the area. Better moisture and instability is depicted ahead of
the cold front Wednesday afternoon, with PW values of around
1.25 inches and 500-1000 J/kg CAPE. With favored late day or
evening timing, strong heavy thunderstorms are a possibility
Wednesday.

The weather should dry out Wednesday night on loss of heating
and the passage of the cold front, but timing of precipitation
the balance of the week will depend upon the timing of another
cold front, and possible wave. The front will initially have
little moisture to work with as it comes on the heels of its
predecessor, but if a wave forms along it, it may be able to
garner more moisture. The frontal timing appears vary from late
Thursday through Friday with the wave then riding right up
along it, but the wave could then carry the chance for rain
into the start of next weekend.

The warm front takes temperatures well above normal Tuesday
through Wednesday, before the successive cold fronts then take
temperatures back toward normal during the latter portion of the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions during the period. Gusty westerly winds will become
light after 23Z, but increase and become gusty again after 13Z
Sunday with gusts in the 20 kt range across lowlands, and in the 30
kt range across the higher terrain. In addition, LLWS will develop
overnight tonight, generally in the 02-12Z time frame, mainly across
the northeast mountains, affecting site KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms late Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL