-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
780
FXUS61 KRLX 040134
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
934 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through
much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week
with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 930 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder
continue across portions of the area, particularly our far
northeast zones in West Virginia. Locally heavy rain up to the
tune of nearly 2" or so has been observed across portions of
northeast West Virginia this evening. Fortunately, antecedent
dry conditions mitigated any water issues of note. Isolated
heavy downpours are possible over the next hour or two, with a
transition to the chance for mainly isolated and lighter showers
throughout the rest of the overnight. Some fog development is
anticipated tonight, particularly in areas that received rainfall
this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 355 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed once
again this afternoon along the spine of the higher terrain
courtesy of diurnal anabatic convergence. Have introduced likely
PoPs into the evening across this area, with some locally heavy
downpours possible. Given weak low/mid mean layer flow from the
southwest, activity should continue to gradually meander
northeastward. Given the slow movement, a highly isolated water
issue or two cannot be ruled out, but rain rates should
generally ease as time goes on given a developing cold pool
across the region. Further west, SCT showers are moving into the
Mid-Ohio Valley as weak mid/upper level forcing begins to push
into the region. Showers will continue to shift eastward
throughout the late afternoon into the evening. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.

As of 129 PM Friday...

As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves
will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a
reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but
thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with
better instability present.

Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe.
However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered
shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor
water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not
anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions.

Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the
mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s
higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers
will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into
the mid 50s higher elevations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1128 AM Friday...

More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled
front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow
aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of
severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in
areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few
days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands
and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid
across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1129 AM Friday...

The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with
chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and
Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather
Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be
something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be
positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and
PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a
concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for
the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure
strengthening over the Great Lakes.

Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still
looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a
warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler
weather returning.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 815 PM Friday...

VFR conditions persist across much of the area currently
outside of MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions in northeast West
Virginia with SCT showers and ISOL thunderstorms. Activity will
continue to shift northeast over the next few hours, with a
mainly dry overnight ahead outside of a few isolated showers.
Some restrictions are possible overnight, mainly with MVFR CIGs
in the mountains, as well as MVFR VSBY restrictions with patchy
fog that could develop. Given cloud cover across the region
overnight, kept fog potential to valley areas that received
rainfall this evening. However, fog coverage could be more
widespread than anticipated depending on any clearing that occurs
overnight.

The chance for ISOL/SCT showers and thunderstorms returns on
Saturday, particularly in the afternoon/evening hours. This
translates to MVFR CIG restrictions, along with IFR/MVFR VSBY
restrictions within heavier showers or any thunderstorms.
Prevailing VSBY restrictions were not coded in with this TAF
issuance given location/timing uncertainty tomorrow.

Light and variable, or even calm surface flow is expected
tonight. Light S/SE flow develops on Saturday, with 15-20 kt
gusts possible in/near the higher terrain during the afternoon/evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight, low to medium Saturday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage could be more than anticipated
overnight. Timing/location of precipitation on Saturday will
likely vary some from the forecast, with periods of MVFR/IFR
visibility possible with heavier showers or any thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 05/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms early Saturday night,
then in stratus and/or fog late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW