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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this
afternoon of evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly
warming into mid-week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 710 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 1216 PM Thursday...

Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft
temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early
Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
Winds will pick up towards early Friday with approach of this
system. With the storms, widespread severe is not anticipated,
but depending on timing of front and convective development, an
isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out across the
south and east, but overall, the front should be through most
locations by peak heating, thus limiting overall instability and
severe potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Friday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high
pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst
Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest
undefended border.

Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may
yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some
more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Friday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back
into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern
stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night.
This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime
highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid
a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch. A
cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a
third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability
looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any
chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

Cool and dry air settles in Wednesday night with some additional
frost potential for Thursday morning.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front. Clouds will increase in coverage,
lowering to 5-6kft by 12Z when the front arrives to the Mid OH
valley. Conditions will remain VFR despite of light rain showers
across the western terminals during the morning hours. However,
a thunderstorm or two may pass by, producing brief periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions and strong gusty winds along their path.

The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a wind shift from
southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and
BKW by 20Z.

Ceilings will lower to MVFR across the mountains along and behind FROPA,
perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and even clearing
may spread from west to east behind the FROPA with widespread VFR conditions
prevailing across the western terminals this afternoon and evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions
may vary from forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...SL/JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ