Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231948 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 348 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving storm system approaches through tonight with rain lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday... A low pressure system will gradually move through the area tonight and exit Wednesday night. Initial band from this low is moving though the CWA this afternoon. Winds will stay gusty through this evening and eventually die down after midnight, except on the mountain ridgetops. Will keep the wind advisory going through the evening for the southern and central mountain zones as 50-60kt low level jet maxes between 00Z-06Z tonight. Low Pressure moves across the area on Tuesday, keeping likely pops over the entire region most of the day. Temperatures stay on the warm side throughout. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... By Tuesday night, a closed low aloft will be located nearly overhead. Its associated, southern stream low pressure system will impact the area in the form of gusty rain showers through Tuesday night and will pivot out of Central Appalachia Wednesday afternoon as it travels toward the coastal Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Although rain showers will be common across the area, they should remain light with minimal risk for flooding. The best moisture exists further to our South and East in the Smokey Mountains and areas of the Piedmont - meanwhile we are limited to about 1" PWAT, at maximum, in this area. Expect widespread rainfall amounts up to 0.25", with higher amounts up to 0.75" possible in the eastern mountains - closer to the track of the low. Widespread cloud cover greatly limits the amount of instability we can muster, so have opted to leave thunder out of the forecast at this time. Wednesday night, the low pulls away toward the NE with weak high pressure building into the area from the West. Rain showers will taper through the night from West to East before drying entirely early Thursday. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... Weak high pressure erodes Thursday night with another southern stream system and short wave approaching. The southern low creeps up the Piedmont Friday and has potential to generate showers along our eastern mountains. However, long-range models are trending further East with the system which would leave those areas dry. Confidence is therefore low in that portion of the forecast. Meanwhile, a digging trough across the Mississippi Valley approaches Friday with a mostly-dry cold front. This front will interact with the southern system Friday night through early Saturday, generating light shower activity across the bulk of the area, especially in areas toward the North. Then, the larger digging trough absorbs the southern system and kicks the entire mean trough East by mid-Saturday. Ridging aloft and high pressure builds for the remainder of the weekend with clearing and warming conditions into the next work week. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM Monday. Ceilings will lower through the day as clouds our next system approaches from the southwest. Light rain showers will continue to move through the region the rest of this afternoon and pretty much through the rest of the forecast period. Generally VFR conditions through the rest of this afternoon with brief MVFR CIGS/VSBYs in showers this evening and overnight tonight. Southeast winds 10-15kts gusting to 25 to 35kt across area this afternoon and tonight will gradually shift to a more southerly direction towards 12Z Tuesday and gradually diminish. As the low tracks over the area during the day on Tuesday, look for VFR Cigs/Vsbys to gradually become MVFR and possibly IFR in heavier showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and cigs may vary over the area during the overnight and morning hours on Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible Tuesday and Tuesday night in light to moderate rain. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ515>522. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...JS

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