Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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519 FXUS61 KRLX 250213 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1013 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level system crosses to our south tonight and continues to spread bands of showers into the region. Southern system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold front Friday night or Saturday. High Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1010 PM Tuesday... Only minor changes made to better reflect current obs and trends. As of 215 PM Tuesday... The slow moving upper level low continues to edge closer to the region. This system will cross to our south later tonight, spreading bands of rain showers across the area through tomorrow...with greatest rain chances tomorrow expected in the mountains. Although the unsettled weather with mostly cloudy skies will persist through the period, temperatures will at least be close to normal, as highs should climb into the low 60s by tomorrow afternoon in the Lowlands and 50s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday... Light rain showers taper off from West to East Wednesday night with the aforementioned upper low exiting toward New England. Weak high pressure then builds from the West offering a brief reprieve for early Thursday. Then, the next upper trough comes through with yet another southern stream system impacting the area. Models today agree on a low pressure system to track up the Smokeys and higher elevations of the Piedmont region Thursday night through early Friday bringing rain showers. Confidence in this system`s track is somewhat low based on uncertain and variable model trends... former model runs have trended this system further West, though today they`re more on board for a more impactful track for this area. Overall, light rain showers not unlike the current (Tuesday) conditions are expected with some moderate rates possible given moisture around 1" PWAT. Current middle-of-the-road model blends indicate up to 0.4" of rainfall along the Eastern mountains should the system track this way. The southern stream system exits toward the NE Friday afternoon, then a cold front or two attached to a digging northern trough passes through Friday night. Models disagree on the amount of moisture with this frontal complex, however impacts would be minimal regardless. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure will build in through the weekend followed by a building upper level ridge providing dry weather with seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the weekend and into the nest work week. Robust, broad high pressure has the potential to create calm, clear nights - especially Monday and Tuesday mornings - so have opted to go on the lower end of minT guidance, further decreasing low spots prone to radiational cooling. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 PM Tuesday... Upper level low to our south providing mixed bag of stratus and showers across the forecast area, resulting in IFR to MVFR across the west and VFR across the east. Expect ceilings to drop late this evening with MVFR to IFR at all TAF sites. LAMP guidance is very insistent on fog formation tonight, and with T/Td spreads already very close think it is on to something despite the continued cloud cover. Conditions will be slow to improve on Wednesday as the upper level low is slow to move away. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form overnight -- or could develop as more low stratus instead. Timing of category changes may vary through tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY L M M L M L M M H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions possible into Wednesday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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